Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire

Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Do scientists agree about global warming?

Do scientists agree about global warming?

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts/there_is_consensus.asp


Science says: 97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.
Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop debating. When a question is first asked—like "what would happen if we put a load more CO2 in the atmosphere?"—there may be many hypotheses about cause and effect. Over a period of time, each idea is tested and retested (the scientific method) because reputation and kudos go to those who find the right answer. Nearly all hypotheses will fall by the wayside during this testing period, because only one is going to answer the question properly, without leaving all kinds of odd dangling bits that don't quite add up. Bad theories are usually rather untidy.
Eventually, the testing period must come to an end. The focus of investigation narrows down to those avenues that continue to make sense, that still add up, and quite often a good theory will reveal additional answers, or make powerful predictions that add substance to the theory. When Russian scientist Dmitri Mendeleev constructed the periodic table of elements, not only did he fit all known elements successfully, he predicted that elements we didn't even know about would turn up later on, and they did!
So a consensus in science is different from a political one. There is no vote. Scientists give up the debate because the sheer weight of consistent evidence is too compelling, the tide too strong to swim against any longer. Scientists change their minds on the basis of the evidence, and a consensus emerges over time. Not only do scientists stop debating, they also start relying on each others' work. All science depends on that which precedes it, and when one scientist builds on the work of another, he acknowledges the work of others through citations. The work that forms the foundation of climate change science is cited with great frequency by many other scientists, demonstrating that the theory is widely accepted and relied upon.

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