INTELLIGENCE GUIDANCE (SPECIAL EDITION): SEPT. 25, 2009 - IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Stratfor

INTELLIGENCE GUIDANCE (SPECIAL EDITION): SEPT. 25, 2009 - IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Editor's Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to
provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast,
but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as
well as suggestions on areas for focus.

Iran's revelation of a second enrichment site is not critical in a military
sense. The West always knew the Iranians were playing a shell game. What it does
do, however, is highlight that one of the challenges of the situation is simply
that Western intelligence does not know how good its intelligence is -- until it
is used. So the Iranians are attempting a smoke-and-mirrors strategy in the hope
of deterring an attack. But they also don't know how much the West does or does
not know either.

Far more important was the decision by the leaders of the United States, the
United Kingdom and France to condemn Iran's partial unveiling of this new site,
and to demonstrate clearly that the time for talks is almost over. The round of
talks beginning Oct. 1 has been portrayed by the Israelis as the final round.
Now the United States is publicly saying the same thing, although Obama
continues to say it prefers a peaceful settlement.

There are four issues we need to drill into:

First, will the Russians come on board with gasoline sanctions in this context
or do they continue their opposition? We need to reassess the Russian mood and
see what their lowest possible price is for assistance.

Second, we should start seeing some overt movements by the U.S. military to
spook the Iranians. This will not be the typical watch for carriers moving
toward the Gulf. Between forces participating in the Iraq and Afghan conflicts,
the United States already has more than what it needs to attack Iran. Watch and
evaluate activities in the region itself.

Third, are there any statements out of Israel? They have been forcing this issue
to a head. A lack of statements from them is ominous.

Finally, Iran has the "use it or lose it" option with mines. If they feel attack
is imminent, will they use the mines? The United States must act against the
mines before anything else if this is not to cause a global recession on its
own.

Bottom line: If the Iranians indicate that they will not cooperate and the
Russians do not budge on their opposition to imposing sanctions, then war could
come suddenly -- and from the United States. All the pieces for that war are
already in place. It is just a question of nerve -- for all parties.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.