Israel Convinced of Longer Iranian Nuclear Time Line, Officials Say

Friday, Aug. 20, 2010

A security officer stands beneath a U.N. surveillance camera at Iran's Isfahan uranium conversion facility in 2007. The United States has persuaded Israel that Iran would need more time than previously thought to produce fuel for a nuclear bomb, according to Obama administration officials (Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images).

U.S. officials believe the Obama administration has convinced Israel that Iran would need a year or more to finish what would be a highly public "dash" to convert its low-enriched uranium into nuclear bomb material, possibly lessening the likelihood of Israeli military action against its Middle Eastern rival in the next 12 months, the New York Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 19).
“We think that they have roughly a year dash time,” said Gary Samore, National Security Council coordinator for arms control and nonproliferation. “A year is a very long period of time.”
The International Atomic Energy Agency would spot the military diversion of material from Iran's nuclear program in a matter of weeks, giving Jerusalem and Washington ample time to weigh attacks on the country, the Obama administration determined based on intelligence gathered in the last year and U.N. safeguards reports. Israel previously believed Iran was capable of building a nuclear weapon within months if it chose to do so.

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