Don’t count on natural gas to solve US energy problems
Posted by Gail the Actuary on February 18, 2011 - 11:26am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: canadian natural gas, natural gas, shale gas [list all tags]
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: canadian natural gas, natural gas, shale gas [list all tags]
We often hear statements suggesting that by ramping up shale gas production, the US can raise total natural gas production and solve many of its energy problems, including adding quite a number of natural gas vehicles, and replacing a large share of coal fired electricity generation. While there is the possibility that shale gas will allow US natural gas supplies to increase for a few years (or even 10 or 15 years), natural gas is only about one-fourth of US fossil fuel use, so it would be very difficult to ramp it up enough to meet all of these needs.
One issue is whether a rise in shale gas will mostly offset other reductions in natural gas supply. In Annual Energy Outlook 2011, EIA forecasts that shale gas production will increase from 23% of US natural gas production in 2010 to 46% of US natural gas production by 2035, but that these increases will mostly offset decreases elsewhere. Even with this huge increase in shale gas production, the EIA only sees US natural gas production increasing by an average of 0.8% per year between 2011 and 2035, and US natural gas consumption increasing by an average of 0.6% per year per year to 2035--not enough to make a very big dent in our overall energy needs.
Figure 1. EIA Figure from the Early Release Overview of Annual Energy Release 2011. (Upper caption is EIA's.) I don't know that the EIA forecast is correct, but below the fold are some related issues I see. While we may see some increase in natural gas supplies, there is significant downside risk, if shale gas cannot continue to ramp up considerably, because of cost, or fracking issues, or CO2 issues, or any number of other problems. Even if shale gas does continue to ramp up as planned, the EIA forecast suggests that the impact on total US natural gas production is likely to be modest at best. It seems to me that steps we make to use this new supply should be made cautiously, being aware that the increased supply may not be all that much, or last all that long.
One issue is whether a rise in shale gas will mostly offset other reductions in natural gas supply. In Annual Energy Outlook 2011, EIA forecasts that shale gas production will increase from 23% of US natural gas production in 2010 to 46% of US natural gas production by 2035, but that these increases will mostly offset decreases elsewhere. Even with this huge increase in shale gas production, the EIA only sees US natural gas production increasing by an average of 0.8% per year between 2011 and 2035, and US natural gas consumption increasing by an average of 0.6% per year per year to 2035--not enough to make a very big dent in our overall energy needs.
No comments:
Post a Comment