Top of the Agenda: IAEA Reportedly Confirms Expanded Iranian Nuclear Capacity
An International Atomic Energy Agency report says Iran has doubled the number of centrifuges (NYT)
installed in the Fordow underground site, bringing it three-quarters of
the way to the 2,800 centrifuges it needs for the production of nuclear
fuel. The report, which Iran called a "political move," led the White
House to warn that "the window that is open now to resolve this
diplomatically will not remain open indefinitely," while Israel says the
findings add credibility to its warnings about Iran's nuclear
ambitions.
Analysis
"With Iran and the nuclear program,
I've not given up on diplomacy, and I still think there's a chance down
the road that you could come up with an outcome that would be enough
for the Iranian government to wrap themselves in, but would not be too
much for the United States or Israel or the rest of the world to accept.
But that would really be threading the needle. I would say it's a
possibility, but it's going to be extraordinarily difficult to come up
with that sort of a negotiated outcome," says CFR President Richard
Haass.
"The
development of Iran's nuclear infrastructure and enrichment complex to
date has followed what international relations theorists call a "salami tactic" path—by
pushing the bounds of what is allowed under the NPT and by keeping
back-end development of nuclear technologies under wraps, the country
has been able to build a full-cycle nuclear infrastructure slice by
slice without ever clearly pushing the proliferation envelope. Tehran
may very well continue that trend and avoid the potential firestorm of
economic and military consequences that a public acknowledgement of
nuclear-weapons capabilities could bring," writes Chris White in National Interest.
"Perhaps
supreme leader Ali Khamenei doesn't take the Israeli threat seriously,
though clearly he should; perhaps he might welcome such an attack as a
way to rally domestic and international support, bust out of tightening
economic sanctions and justify a unqualified race for a bomb. Whatever
the case, Iran's behavior has pushed the Obama administration into an
awkward position," says this Washington Post editorial.
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