Uncovering Iran's Nuclear Past: Where to Start? Where to Stop?

Uncovering Iran's Nuclear Past: Where to Start? Where to Stop?

05/24/14

Jon Wolfsthal

Nonproliferation, Iran

"Preventing a nuclear Iran may not require uncovering every last piece of Iran’s nuclear past, or publicly admitting all its previous actions." 

Talks over Iran’s nuclear future have run into the challenging obstacle of Tehran’s nuclear past. It is impossible and unwise to overlook Iran’s twenty-year history of alleged nuclear cheating that includes clandestine efforts to develop nuclear weapon components and deliver weapons by ballistic missile. While uncovering the truth about Iran’s nuclear past is vital, some areas of its past are far more critical than others if the goal is preventing Iran from building a bomb in the future. In fact, seeking to uncover and publicly disclose every last part of the military dimensions of Iran previous nuclear work may undermine current negotiation efforts. Policy makers in the United States must decide if they are willing to put at risk a deal that restrains Iran’s nuclear future in order to pursue a complete public accounting of Iran’s nuclear past.

In 2011, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—the UN’s nuclear watchdog— published a report detailing Iran’s suspected weapons-related work. Iran has yet to provide adequate answers to most of these questions, in part because it continues to publicly deny it ever pursued nuclear weapons. This, in the minds of officials, experts and long-time observers is proof that Iran harbors long-term nuclear weapon ambitions and cannot be trusted to implement any new agreement. To others, it seems Iran has painted itself into a corner, and fears risking additional sanctions and pressure, or even political humiliation at home.

Fortunately, not all aspects of Iran’s past work are relevant to whether they can build a nuclear weapon in the future. It would be useful for the IAEA to focus on those parts of the nuclear file pertinent to Iran’s ability to rapidly build a nuclear weapon in the future. While this may leave some questions unanswered, it may unlock the door to an agreement that both sides appear ready to make.

Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/uncovering-irans-nuclear-past-where-start-where-stop-10527