Top of the Agenda
Ukraine and Russia Reach Gas Deal
Ukrainian and Russian officials signed a natural gas deal (NYT) on Thursday
that provides Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine through March 2015. The
deal had been delayed for months due to Ukraine's unpaid bills and
Russia's annexation of Crimea. The European Union, which led
negotiations, is also a signatory of the agreement, making this the
first trilateral energy agreement (EU Observer) of its kind. Funds from the EU and the International Monetary Fund will help Ukraine repay its debts.
Analysis
"Russia's
supply lines run through Ukraine to several EU countries, and as much
as 70% of its gas to the EU is carried through those pipes. So while
Russia has in recent years tried to bypass Ukraine, in particular with
the Nord Stream and South Stream projects, the two countries are, for
now, inextricably linked," writes Paul Kirby for the BBC.
"Many analysts believe Ukraine cannot get through the coming winter
without cutting some kind of gas purchase deal with Russia. That
question would not have arisen if Ukraine's leaders had made better
decisions years ago and the country were now producing 30 BCM of gas,"
writes Steven Pifer in the American Interest.
"[Ukraine]'s economy is heavily dependent on Russia,
not only for gas but also as its largest export client. Cutting off
Russia—as joining the E.U. might entail—would be a risky move. As for
the infusion of Western money, it could disappear into a hole of
corruption. Ukraine's admission into the E.U. seems unlikely, despite
the trade deal, Poroshenko's optimism, and all the flags," writes
Nicolas Niarchos in the New Yorker.
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