CFR Update: Iran Nuclear Talks Continue

TOP OF THE AGENDA

Iran Nuclear Talks Continue

High-level talks between P5+1 powers and Iran continue for a sixth day in Vienna after negotiators missed a self-imposed June 30 deadline to reach a deal to limit Tehran's nuclear program. Yukiya Amano, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, meets (Reuters) with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani president and top national security officials in Tehran on Thursday, in a bid to resolve differences over the inspection of military sites. Meanwhile, the IAEA's monthly report on Iran said that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium gas was reduced and that the country had met an important commitment (AP) outlined in April's preliminary nuclear deal. Negotiators extended (WSJ) the deadline for talks to July 7, citing progress but saying that differences remained on sticking points, including access for UN nuclear inspectors and the terms of sanctions relief.

ANALYSIS

"This raises the real possibility that the drive to become a nuclear weapons threshold state is inextricably linked to Iran's unique identity—its sense of entitlement and vulnerability—that has driven it toward the nuclear weapons option. If this is in fact the case, only transformation of the regime into something else—a more moderate, normal state—might allow for the possibility that Iran would give up permanently its desire to remain a nuclear weapons threshold state," writes Aaron David Miller for CNN.

"Much of the economic boost from sanctions relief is likely to be consumed internally by the Rouhani government, the political-economic elite, and to some extent the Iranian people. Those responsible for Iran's foreign policy, including the Revolutionary Guards, will have more resources, but Iran's regional influence is not as much dependent on money as it is on Tehran's ability to exploit the growing instability around it. And that takes less funding than often assumed," writes Alireza Nader in the National Interest.

"Iran has much to offer the world in terms of its energy resources, and the world has much to offer Iran in helping to produce and export its vast oil reserves. Preventing Iran from establishing nuclear capabilities might be the most obvious driver for talks, but it is far from the only one. Oil companies have a vested interest in opening up shop in Tehran, and so do countries that need to diversify their energy suppliers in the face of global conflict," write Tara Shirvani and Sinisa Vukovic in Foreign Affairs.