CFR Update: U.S. Gulf Allies Back Iran Deal

August 4, 2015 Daily News Brief

TOP OF THE AGENDA U.S. Gulf Allies Back Iran Deal U.S. Gulf allies publicly backed (NYT) last month's agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program following a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and foreign ministers of Gulf Cooperation Council members in Qatar on Monday. Kerry also pledged (WSJ) to boost intelligence sharing, expedite arms transfers, and increase training to Washington's regional partners. Gulf states have expressed concerns that the billions of dollars that will flow into Iran after sanctions are lifted will pave the way for Tehran to pursue (FT) regional interventions. Meanwhile, Kerry travels (AP) to the Asia Pacific on Tuesday to rally negotiating partners on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement in Singapore and to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum in Malaysia.

ANALYSIS "The nuclear agreement with Iran has propelled Saudi Arabia to make rolling back Iran’s regional influence a priority. Its strategy is to unite as much as possible of the Sunni Middle East (excepting extremists like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda). Riyadh may be right that this is the best way to strengthen its hand against Tehran’s cohesive Shiite bloc. But it also means consolidating already sharp sectarian divisions in the Middle East," writes Hussein Ibish in the New York Times. "The implication of the nuclear deal, for Iran and its neighbors, goes far beyond preventing the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Rather, it presents an unprecedented opportunity since the Iranian Revolution to create a paradigm shift in the perception and substance of Iranian and Arab relations to resolve regional conflicts that threaten not only the Arabian Peninsula but global security as a whole," writes Luay al-Khatteeb in Al-Monitor. "In this classic security dilemma, actors risk misreading one another’s intentions; one side’s defensive act may be interpreted as offensive by the other. Iran’s claim of dominating four Arab capitals (Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and Sanaa), for example, is often construed by regional observers as tantamount to the rise of a new Persian empire, ignoring that these are four disastrously failed states, to put it mildly. Thus, the nuclear agreement may inadvertently inject a tremendous amount of uncertainty into the region," writes Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar in the Washington Post.