CFR Update Paris Climate Talks Open Amid Global Rallies

November 30, 2015 Daily News Brief

TOP OF THE AGENDA Paris Climate Talks Open Amid Global Rallies More than 150 heads of state arrived in Paris to kick off two weeks of high-level climate talks (Reuters) aimed at producing a long-term deal to reduce global carbon emissions. The conference, known as COP21, is the latest international effort (France24) on climate policy and is aiming reach an agreement to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Meanwhile, police detained hundreds (NYT) of demonstrators in Paris and placed two dozen environmental activists under house arrest, while some 600,000 people demonstrated against the conference in 175 countries around the world.

ANALYSIS “Failure to reach a deal in Paris could be disastrous, but not for the reason many might intuitively think. Leaders will mostly still try to pursue their national emissions reduction goals even if Paris is a seen as a flop. But the political environment in which they try to do that will be strongly influenced by the Paris outcome,” writes CFR's Michael A. Levi. “Left unclear is whether the Paris agreement will include a binding compliance mechanism. One worry is that unaddressed cases of noncompliance could undermine the credibility of the UNFCCC process. Voluntary mechanisms to encourage states to meet their INDC pledges could help fill this gap,” write CFR's Stewart M. Patrick and Naomi Egel. “The question is not whether Paris will deliver a deal. It will. Nor is the question whether Paris will secure sufficient commitments to limit global temperature rises to below two degrees Celsius. It won’t. The real question is whether Paris can agree a credible mechanism to deliver an early, material increase in ambition that keeps the two degrees Celsius goal alive,” writes Rob Bailey for the Council of Councils.