WPR Articles Jan. 13 — Jan. 20

Is Sudan Coming In From the Cold?

By: Andrew Green | Briefing

One of the more unexpected decisions to emerge in the waning days of Barack Obama’s presidency was his move last week to ease U.S. sanctions against Sudan that have been in place for nearly two decades. The move to open up Sudan’s economy might encourage the reforms that 20 years of sanctions have not.

Mexico Faces a Crucial Year as Trump and Domestic Pressures Converge

By: Paul Imison | Briefing

Amid U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats on trade and immigration with Mexico, deeply unpopular Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto faces social unrest and a potential recession ahead of a presidential election in 2018, when another populist underdog will look to capitalize on public anger.

Economic and Security Issues Sideline Women’s Rights in Egypt

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

An Egyptian court recently upheld a decision to freeze the assets of three women’s rights activists. The three are charged, along with five others, of using illegally obtained foreign funds to “destabilize Egypt.” In an email interview, Marwa Shalaby discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Egypt.

Taking Stock of the U.S. Rebalance and the Contest for Influence in Asia

By: Timothy R. Heath | Briefing

As Donald Trump prepares to assume the presidency of the United States, the contest with China for influence in Asia continues apace. The region’s ambiguous response to President Barack Obama’s rebalance or “pivot” owes less to any U.S. shortcoming than to the potency of its competitor, China.

Under Hollande, Old Ills Plague French Policy in Africa

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Security has defined France’s Africa policy under President Francois Hollande, who was in Mali last week for the final Africa-France Summit of his presidency. But critics argue that Hollande’s militaristic approach distracted from the institution-building necessary for long-term African stability.

Declining Income Inequality Masks Sierra Leone’s Slow Economic Growth

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

With general elections due to be held by 2018, Sierra Leone’s opposition parties have been criticizing the ruling All People’s Congress party for its handling of the country’s poverty and crime issues. In an email interview, Tristan Reed discusses poverty and income inequality in Sierra Leone.

Is Jordan Winning Its Battle Against Domestic Extremism?

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

Last month’s terrorist attack in southern Jordan, which the Islamic State claimed responsibility for, was a brutal reminder of the kingdom’s fragile security situation. For all the worries about homegrown extremism in Jordan, though, the attack revealed its opposite: popular rejection of the Islamic State.

Once a Caribbean Success Story, Trinidad and Tobago Faces an Uncertain Future

By: Robert Looney | Briefing

Resource booms and busts are a sad reality for most commodity-based developing countries, and Trinidad and Tobago is no exception. The wealthiest of the Caribbean economies, thanks to its oil and gas resources, is currently mired in a severe recession after the collapse of world oil prices.

The National Intelligence Council Paints a Grim Future of ‘Disruption’

By: Steven Metz | Column

In the NIC’s latest long-term forecast, which catalogues an array of political, economic, demographic and technological trends, a single keyword occurs over and over: disruption. In a very broad sense, the futurists in the U.S. intelligence community believe the world has entered an age of disruption.

The Rise and Potential Fall of the Liberal International Order

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss President Barack Obama’s foreign policy legacy. For the Report, Patrick M. Stewart talks to Peter Dörrie about the prospects of the liberal world order and what might replace it.

Can Cote d’Ivoire Keep Its Soldiers in the Barracks?

By: Robbie Corey-Boulet | Briefing

Last week, Cote d’Ivoire’s government and soldiers who had mutinied claimed to have reached a deal to end their standoff. The mutiny proved that, six years after the creation of a new Ivoirian army amid post-election violence, the goal of a cohesive and disciplined fighting force is still far from reality.

How Rafsanjani Became the Pragmatic Voice of Iran’s Revolution

By: Mohsen Milani | Feature

Iran’s late Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani left a powerful but mixed legacy. During his career he justified repression and catered to extremists, but was also often a voice of moderation. His death comes at a critical juncture in Iranian politics, leaving an uncertain fate for reform.

On Iran, Can Trump Make the Transition From Campaign Rhetoric to Policy?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

When it comes to Iran, as on other issues, the views of Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees do not suggest an easy consensus about how to transition from the president-elect’s brash campaign promises—to cancel the Iran nuclear agreement, for example—to the messy world of less-than-ideal policy options.

Morocco Renews Iran Ties—With Saudi Arabia’s Permission

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this month, Morocco’s ambassador to Iran presented his credentials in Tehran, restoring ties between the two countries that Rabat severed in 2009 over what it called Iran’s interference in Morocco’s internal affairs. In an email interview, Ann Wainscott discusses Morocco’s ties with Iran.

Trump Wants to Break the EU. Will He Instead End Up Being Its Savior?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

Just when it seemed like the EU’s troubles couldn’t get any worse, Donald Trump rubbed salt in its wounds last week in an interview, lauding Brexit, disparaging German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and deriding the EU as a vehicle for German economic domination. But could Trump end up being the EU’s savior?

As Inequality Grows in Mexico, So Does Social Polarization

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Mexico has one of the highest rates of inequality among developed countries, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, with the richest 1 percent of the population owning almost half of the country’s wealth. In an email interview, Patricio Solís discusses income inequality in Mexico.

How Will Countries Respond to China’s Shift From Global Exporter to Investor?

By: Damien Ma | Briefing

That China is an export powerhouse is well established. Less remarked upon is the rise of its newest export: capital. During his speech at the World Economic Forum this week—the first by a Chinese president—President Xi Jinping touted China’s efforts in facilitating global trade and economic development.

Why Americans Won’t Give Trump a Pass on Russia Ties

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Americans are watching with great interest to see how exactly the Trump administration manages bilateral ties with Russia and how Donald Trump deals with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is not a positive development for the incoming president, given Americans’ deep distrust of Moscow and Putin.

Despite a Robust Women’s Movement, Turkey Sees Gender Equality Lag

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called women who work “half persons,” sparking outrage among many liberal Turks, though his statement resonated with the country’s conservative majority. In an email interview, Melinda Negrón-Gonzales discusses women’s rights and gender equality in Turkey.

In Life and Death, Rafsanjani Will Leave a Lasting Imprint on Iran’s Politics

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda. For the Report, Mohsen Milani talks about former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s lasting influence on Iranian politics.

Which of America’s Adversaries Will Test Trump First?

By: Steven Metz | Column

America’s adversaries are almost certain to challenge President Donald Trump early on to test his inexperience in national security affairs. How he and his team respond will determine whether other adversaries mount challenges of their own. What is unclear is which of America’s adversaries will move first.