Analysis of the IAEA’s Fifth Iran Nuclear Deal Report

Analysis of the IAEA’s Fifth Iran Nuclear Deal Report Download PDF

On February 24, 2017, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its fifth report on Iran’s compliance with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2231 (2015). UNSCR 2231 codified into international law the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement reached between the P5+1 and Iran in July 2015 aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program. The JCPOA was implemented on January 16, 2016, a date known as Implementation Day. The latest IAEA report again states: “Since Implementation Day, the Agency has been verifying and monitoring the implementation by Iran of its nuclear-related commitments” under the Iran deal. Nowhere in the report does the IAEA state that Iran is fully compliant with the JCPOA, and it should not make that judgement. The issue of full compliance is rightly the responsibility of the Joint Commission and governments, in particular those in the P5+1.
The IAEA report lists many areas where Iran has met the conditions of the JCPOA’s provisions. However, known verification controversies are not included in the reporting. Moreover, the report states that the IAEA is still unable to determine the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran. Although this report contains more detail in certain areas than previous reports, the IAEA reporting continues to be too sparse.

Key Findings

1. Since our last report, the Joint Commission adopted our recommendation to make its decisions public. That decision to be more transparent is welcome and should have motivated the IAEA to report additional information about Iranian nuclear activities, programs, and materials. Yet, key information is still lacking. The IAEA should report comprehensively on the situation so that governments can determine if Iran is in compliance with the JCPOA.
2. Due to some of the information in the IAEA report and other information we have obtained, we remain concerned that Iran is not fully complying with the JCPOA, or is at least pushing the envelope of compliance in a detrimental direction.
3. Iran’s total stock of heavy water is 135.2 metric tonnes,¹ comprising 124.2 metric tonnes inside Iran and 11 tonnes located outside Iran. A reasonable interpretation of the JCPOA, shared by many, is that Iran is limited to a total of 130 metric tonnes of heavy water whether the heavy water is in Iran or under its control outside Iran. The current situation whereby Iran can cache its heavy water in Iran, allowing it to exceed that cap, should be ended and recognized as not in compliance with the JCPOA.² Iran is producing heavy water at an annualized rate of about 25 metric tonnes per year, or more than 2 metric tonnes per month. As a result, by early May, Iran’s stock of heavy water inside Iran is expected to reach 130 metric tonnes.
4. The report does not discuss, and is cast in a way as to highly doubt, whether the inspectors have visited Iranian military sites. Such access is part of the IAEA’s legitimate need to verify JCPOA bans on nuclear weaponization activities which could contribute to the development of a nuclear explosive device and develop confidence in the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activity as mandated under the IAEA comprehensive safeguards agreement and reinforced by the Additional Protocol. The IAEA at least needs to start to verify the weaponization bans in the JCPOA, which it is required to do under United Nations Security Council resolution 2231. This verification necessarily will require the IAEA to visit Iranian military sites.
5. Since the last report, the IAEA attended one meeting of the Procurement Working Group which oversees procurements by Iran of nuclear and nuclear-related commodities. This meeting may have addressed the export to Iran of a relatively large shipment of natural uranium (125.4 metric tonnes uranium mass). The approval of this uranium shipment occurred during the Obama administration, but it would likely have been blocked by the Trump administration.
6. The IAEA states that during the reporting period, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile “has not exceeded 300 kg of UF6 enriched up to 3.67% U-235 (or the equivalent in different chemical forms). The quantity of 300 kg of UF6 corresponds to 202.8 kg of uranium.” Yet this value does not represent the total amount of uranium enriched up to 3.67 percent. If all the LEU had been included, Iran’s stock would have exceeded the 300 kg cap; the amount above that reported by the IAEA has been exempted from consideration by the Joint Commission.
7. Although not reported in the IAEA report, we have learned that Iran is not enriching much uranium in the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP). In theory, the FEP could produce up to 100 kg of LEU hexafluoride per month; it is producing far less than this amount. Iran’s future plans with regard to the FEP remain unknown. In addition, we do not know if Iran continues to enrich depleted uranium to natural uranium in the FEP, which would be an exploitation of a loophole in the JCPOA that the Joint Commission should fix.
8. The report includes little reporting on Iran’s centrifuge research and development activities. It does state that Iran is now enriching uranium in a single IR-8 centrifuge and that after enrichment the enriched uranium is remixed with the depleted uranium, yielding natural uranium. The use of a single IR-8 centrifuge to enrich (and remix) uranium is consistent with Iran’s enrichment plan. However, missing is any discussion of whether Iran abiding by restrictions on centrifuge R&D under the JCPOA. One example is allegations that Iran exploited allowed “quality assurance” criteria at Kalaye Electric and possibly elsewhere to conduct additional mechanical testing of centrifuges beyond that allowed under the JCPOA.
9. Overall, the IAEA effort in Iran needs to be strengthened, in particular by gaining access to Iranian military sites and providing more comprehensive reporting, and that strengthening should be fully supported by the Board of Governors and the P5+1.

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