Bulletin of Atomic Scientists May 10, 2018

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Trump withdraws from the Iran deal. What now?   John Mecklin In a shocking but not surprising announcement on Tuesday, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. As world leaders reel from the announcement, the Bulletin reached out to leading experts and asked what Trump's actions mean in both the short- and long-term. Here’s what they are saying:   The imprudence of unilateral US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal   Abbas Milani For Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, and his allies, the US scuttling of the JCPOA will be a god-send.     Crisis creation at its finest   Dina Esfandiary   Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran deal only serves to create a new crisis on an issue that was shelved more than two years ago.   An opportunity missed   William H. Tobey The decision to leave the JCPOA is a blunder. The deal has significant flaws, but withdrawing only compounds those problems.     A move that alienated allies and diminished US influence   Siegfried S. Hecker   Withdrawing from the deal has already alienated US allies and greatly diminished US ability to limit Iran’s nuclear direction.   Say goodbye to the Iran deal and hello to a "polynuclear" Middle East   Ezra Friedman   Just before President Trump's announcement, Ezra Friedman posted about how a US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal could lead to a Middle East with more than just one or two nuclear-armed states.   Trump's undoing of American influence   Sharon Squassoni   Science and Security Board member Sharon Squassoni writes that, for Donald Trump, getting out of the Iran deal is the political equivalent of firing someone on “The Apprentice.” It is a short-term action completely divorced from any consideration of long-term consequences.   A dangerous new US-Iran escalation   Seyed Hossein Mousavian A dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it has the real potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of the Iraq War pale in comparison.   Taking stock of the damage   Martin B. Malin If the JCPOA collapses, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as the UN Security Council may be rendered powerless.   The specter of an anti-American Eurasia   Mark Hibbs Right off the bat, cheerleaders for the Iran deal, following negotiators’ optimistic talking points, awarded it an A grade, and naïve and disingenuous demonizers just as promptly gave it an F. Into this breach the president stepped on May 8.     Tillerson was right about Trump   Frank von Hippel President Trump has talked at length about getting "a better deal," but he has done nothing to achieve that goal.   What We're Reading   Ariane Tabatabai   Fluent in Persian, French, and English, Bulletin columnist Ariane Tabatabai has become a go-to expert for the media for thoughtful, nuanced analysis on all things nuclear and Iran. Read her April column on what Iranian hardliners are saying on social media, and check her Twitter feed to see an updated thread with new Iranian memes added. A special collection of her columns can be found here.     A bad choice, for the United States and for Israel   Graham Allison If summarizing a reaction in a tweet: bad choice. If given a few more characters: bad for the US, and bad for our ally Israel, which stands much closer to this front line.   The Trump decision: dangerous, irresponsible, and full of implications for North Korea   Kelsey Davenport It would be premature to declare the nuclear deal dead. Washington’s P5+1 partners and the European Union have powerful tools at their disposal to block the secondary effects of US sanctions.     The likely result: US isolation and loss of leverage   Joshua Pollack   Iran’s nuclear ambitions may not be a solved problem in any ultimate sense, but President Obama succeeded in putting the issue in abeyance for a generation. That achievement won’t be improved upon in the foreseeable future. It should not have been discarded so lightly, or at all.   Trump makes a reckless decision   Lawrence J. Korb In his remarks reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump gave no indication that he has a Plan B.   An extremely risky experiment   Robert Rosner   Science and Security Board member Robert Rosner describes how, by stepping out alone, the US is conducting a diplomatic and economic experiment.   Join us for a virtual reality tour of the Clock For 8 days in May, you can take a virtual reality tour through the Doomsday Clock. See our events page for details.   Follow the Bulletin on Twitter and on Facebook.

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