Experts Mull Potential Middle East Nuclear Umbrella
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090826_5956.php
Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire - Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry. Nuclear Activities
Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire - Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry. Nuclear Activities
A U.S. analyst suggested that extending nuclear deterrence over the Middle East could backfire, possibly even raising the threat of an atomic conflict, National Public Radio reported today (see GSN, Aug. 25).
ReplyDeleteSecretary of State Hillary Clinton last month said the Obama administration would consider extending a defense umbrella to its Middle Eastern allies if Iran continues its disputed nuclear activities (see related GSN story, today). By providing such protection, the United States guarantees it would retaliate in kind to a conventional or nuclear attack on an ally.
"Nuclear extended deterrence, if it fails, could embroil the United States, or whoever else is providing this guarantee, in a nuclear war that they otherwise could have avoided," said Joshua Pollack, a nuclear proliferation expert who contributes to the ArmsControlWonk blog. "These second-hand retaliatory threats that we're talking about may not be quite as credible as the retaliatory threats one would make on behalf of one's own country."
"Our allies in the Persian Gulf tend to be very sensitive to claims that they are overly reliant on the United States for their security, and perhaps are not fully independent," Pollack added. "So, revolutionary states like Iran and like Syria could reap a propaganda coup, a bonanza, from too-overt an American nuclear security guarantee. Even al-Qaeda could be expected to try to capitalize on a declaration like that."
Another analyst took a more positive view of the question.
"Extended deterrence remains very important. It is a key element to preventing cascades of proliferation," said Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center. By extending such protection to Japan and South Korea, Washington sought to remove the need for either nation to counter North Korea's nuclear weapons with a nuclear deterrent.
ReplyDeleteExisting U.S. military commitments in the Middle East could complicate a deterrence program for the region, which would require tighter defense connections with friendly nations and a readiness to rapidly field land-, air- and sea-based forces, Krepon added.
"It's up to the Obama administration now to shore up the credibility of that guarantee," he said, adding that long-range bombers deployed at a U.S. air base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia would be sufficient for launching a nuclear strike in the Middle East.