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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Climate change update by the numbers Barry Brook

Climate change update by the numbers

Barry Brook | 13 July 2011 at 3:56 PM | Categories: Clim Ch Q&A, Hot News | URL: http://wp.me/piCIJ-1fx
Here are some figures to illustrate the latest global data on global warming. Data are from NCDC and GISS.
First, a 12-month running mean of global surface temperature anomalies since 1980 (i.e. for each month, an average is taken of the previous 12-month period - 'calendar year' is irrelevant):

The IPCC AR4 model results track closely with observations:

The global temperature data can be smoothed by taking an 11-year running mean (which tends to average out ENSO and solar cycles). It shows a 0.2C rise over the last decade, and is now at record levels:

A further smoothing, by taking a 22-year running mean, shows how steady the rise has been in the last few decades, when averaged over a climatically relevant period: Read more of this post

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