Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire

Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry.

Saturday, November 25, 2023

(174) WATCH: An Honest & Sensible Conversation about Global Energy | Scott Tinker - YouTube

(174) WATCH: An Honest & Sensible Conversation about Global Energy | Scott Tinker - YouTube: This is a talk that everyone has to watch. In the real world, we have to make real trade-offs between climate security, energy poverty, and energy security. ...

Is the Nuclear Energy Industry Ready for AI? | Neutron Bytes

Is the Nuclear Energy Industry Ready for AI? | Neutron Bytes: Is the Nuclear Energy Industry Ready for Artificial Intelligence? IAEA Working Groups on AI IAEA Report on AI and Nuclear Energy US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Strategic Plan and Workshops on AI …

Geothermal energy projects heat up in Philippines and Indonesia - Nikkei Asia

Geothermal energy projects heat up in Philippines and Indonesia - Nikkei Asia

Over Half of US at Elevated Risk of Winter Blackouts Due to Biden Energy Policies, Watchdog Comments on Industry Report | The Gateway Pundit | by Warner Todd Huston, The Western Journal

Over Half of US at Elevated Risk of Winter Blackouts Due to Biden Energy Policies, Watchdog Comments on Industry Report | The Gateway Pundit | by Warner Todd Huston, The Western Journal

Residents in Blue States Pay Much More for Electricity Than in Red States: Study | The Epoch Times

Residents in Blue States Pay Much More for Electricity Than in Red States: Study | The Epoch Times

Fukushima News | Fukushima Nuclear Disaster | Fukushima Accident

Fukushima News | Fukushima Nuclear Disaster | Fukushima Accident

Friday, November 24, 2023

What we already know about Israel’s 'secret' nuclear program

What we already know about Israel’s 'secret' nuclear program: Israel's nuclear status has been a source of controversy and speculation for decades. But what do we already know about its nuclear weapons?

NuScale Power and ORNL to undertake SMR assessment - Nuclear Engineering International

NuScale Power and ORNL to undertake SMR assessment - Nuclear Engineering International: US-based NuScale Power Corporation is partnering with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to perform a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of a NuScale small modular reactor’s (SMR’s) ability to implement a cost-effective steam...

Home - Generation Atomic

Home - Generation Atomic: Safeguarding your energy and climate future by championing the cause for nuclear. Join our movement for a brighter tomorrow. Inspire a new wave of supporters. We want to tell the story of atomic abundance in creative ways in order to inspire new leaders and build a self-sustaining culture of atomicadvocacy. Empower the nuclear community. We

Floating Nuclear Power Plants: Benefits and Challenges discussed at IAEA Symposium | IAEA

Floating Nuclear Power Plants: Benefits and Challenges discussed at IAEA Symposium | IAEA: How can we provide a reliable supply of energy far out to sea, or on an island, or in a coastal community?

Update 196 - IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA

Update 196 - IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA

Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants | Reuters

Giant batteries drain economics of gas power plants | Reuters

In Charts: How Electricity Is Changing, Country by Country - The New York Times

In Charts: How Electricity Is Changing, Country by Country - The New York Times

France to Decide on More Nuclear Reactors - Bloomberg

France to Decide on More Nuclear Reactors - Bloomberg: France will decide by the end of 2026 on whether to build another eight large nuclear reactors in addition to the six atomic plants it already plans to construct.

Floating Nuclear Power Plants: Benefits and Challenges discussed at IAEA Symposium | IAEA

Floating Nuclear Power Plants: Benefits and Challenges discussed at IAEA Symposium | IAEA: How can we provide a reliable supply of energy far out to sea, or on an island, or in a coastal community?

Idaho National Nuclear Lab Targeted in Major Data Breach

Idaho National Nuclear Lab Targeted in Major Data Breach: The laboratory operates a major test reactor, tests advanced nuclear energy concepts, and conducts research involving hydrogen production and bioenergy.

Portland nuclear power startup NuScale hit with investor lawsuit - OPB

Portland nuclear power startup NuScale hit with investor lawsuit - OPB: Investors have hauled a Portland-based nuclear power company into federal court claiming the company misled them about a major project promised to usher in a new age of nuclear power.

A Nuclear Renaissance Is Underway | National Review

A Nuclear Renaissance Is Underway | National Review: Several European countries were, until relatively recently, phasing out their nuclear power stations, or planning to. Many are now changing course.

Wake up, America: 8 actions to boost advanced nuclear and enhance US energy security | Utility Dive

Wake up, America: 8 actions to boost advanced nuclear and enhance US energy security | Utility Dive

Early site permitting for advanced nuclear facilities gets you ahead of the game

Early site permitting for advanced nuclear facilities gets you ahead of the game: With the introduction of advanced nuclear technology and small modular reactors (SMR), the early site permitting process defined within 10 CFR 52 has drawn more recent attention as an effective means for owners to qualify sites for future nuclear generation without making a technology selection.

IAEA finds commitment to safety at Russian fast reactor : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News

IAEA finds commitment to safety at Russian fast reactor : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News: An International Atomic Energy Agency team of experts have reviewed operational safety at unit 4 of Russia's Beloyarsk nuclear power plant. It marks the first Operational Safety Review Team mission to a fast neutron reactor.

Hungary to consider alternative sources for nuclear fuel : Uranium & Fuel - World Nuclear News

Hungary to consider alternative sources for nuclear fuel : Uranium & Fuel - World Nuclear News: The Hungarian Parliament has reportedly supported an amendment to the country's nuclear energy policy that would allow alternative sources to be used for fuel for the Paks nuclear power plant, which has until now relied on Russian-supplied fuel.

Bruce completes largest-to-date radioisotope delivery : Corporate - World Nuclear News

Bruce completes largest-to-date radioisotope delivery : Corporate - World Nuclear News: October's harvest of cobalt-60, used worldwide to sterilise medical equipment, was the largest since the company began producing the isotope in the 1980s and included two shipments of medical-grade material for therapeutic use.

First refuelling at floating nuclear power plant : Uranium & Fuel - World Nuclear News

First refuelling at floating nuclear power plant : Uranium & Fuel - World Nuclear News: Fresh nuclear fuel has been loaded into the starboard side reactor on the Akademik Lomonosov in the first operation of its kind, with the process due to be completed by the end of the year, Rosatom says.

Eletronuclear outlines clean hydrogen production plan : Energy & Environment - World Nuclear News

Eletronuclear outlines clean hydrogen production plan : Energy & Environment - World Nuclear News: A project to produce 100 tonnes a year of clean hydrogen from the operation of the Angra nuclear power plant's two units was detailed at a seminar on sustainable hydrogen production in Brazil.

Texas officials warn of rolling blackouts to ease strain on power grid - the same strategy that led to 200 people's deaths during massive winter storm in 2021 | Daily Mail Online

Texas officials warn of rolling blackouts to ease strain on power grid - the same strategy that led to 200 people's deaths during massive winter storm in 2021 | Daily Mail Online

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) - First international benchmark of artificial intelligence and machine learning in nuclear reactor physics

Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) - First international benchmark of artificial intelligence and machine learning in nuclear reactor physics: The benchmark will predict the Critical Heat Flux (CHF).

Kairos claims operation of world’s largest FLiBe system - Nuclear Engineering International

Kairos claims operation of world’s largest FLiBe system - Nuclear Engineering International: Kairos Power says its Engineering Test Unit (ETU) in Albuquerque has become the largest FLiBe system in the world. Kairos commissioned the plant in partnership with Materion Corporation to produce high-purity fluoride salt coolant –...

Portland nuclear power startup NuScale hit with investor lawsuit - OPB

Portland nuclear power startup NuScale hit with investor lawsuit - OPB: Investors have hauled a Portland-based nuclear power company into federal court claiming the company misled them about a major project promised to usher in a new age of nuclear power.

Wake up, America: 8 actions to boost advanced nuclear and enhance US energy security | Utility Dive

Wake up, America: 8 actions to boost advanced nuclear and enhance US energy security | Utility Dive

A Nuclear Renaissance Is Underway | National Review

A Nuclear Renaissance Is Underway | National Review

Eucharistic Revival, Thanksgiving, and the Call to Love - The Catholic Thing

Eucharistic Revival, Thanksgiving, and the Call to Love - The Catholic Thing

If we don’t decarbonize in time, do we have a Plan B? -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

If we don’t decarbonize in time, do we have a Plan B? -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Letting go -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Letting go -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Plans for TerraPower’s “test and fill” sodium facility covered in draft EA -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Plans for TerraPower’s “test and fill” sodium facility covered in draft EA -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

The design and legacy of Experimental Breeder Reactor-II -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

The design and legacy of Experimental Breeder Reactor-II -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

US yielding its submarine warfare edge over China - Asia Times

US yielding its submarine warfare edge over China - Asia Times: China's rapid advancements in submarine technology and detection capabilities are challenging the US’s long-established dominance in undersea warfare and

US yielding its submarine warfare edge over China - Asia Times

US yielding its submarine warfare edge over China - Asia Times: China's rapid advancements in submarine technology and detection capabilities are challenging the US’s long-established dominance in undersea warfare and

War, Winter, and Supply Chain Challenges Threaten European Gas Price Stability | OilPrice.com

War, Winter, and Supply Chain Challenges Threaten European Gas Price Stability | OilPrice.com: Despite a currently ample supply of LNG globally, Europe's LNG prices are at risk of spiking due to increased winter demand and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

South Korea to partially suspend military deal with North after launch of spy satellite | North Korea | The Guardian

South Korea to partially suspend military deal with North after launch of spy satellite | North Korea | The Guardian

Corporate agreement furthers Canadian SMR collaboration : Corporate - World Nuclear News

Corporate agreement furthers Canadian SMR collaboration : Corporate - World Nuclear News: Ontario Power Generation subsidiary Laurentis Energy Partners and Saskatchewan utility SaskPower have announced details of a Master Services Agreement that will see them collaborate to advance the deployment of small modular reactors in Saskatchewan.

NRC publishes EP final rule for SMRs -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

NRC publishes EP final rule for SMRs -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Contractors share Paducah job opportunities with students -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Contractors share Paducah job opportunities with students -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

nuclear power satellites space stations | Military Aerospace

nuclear power satellites space stations | Military Aerospace: The aerospace contractors to design space nuclear power through the Joint Emergent Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) project.

Tritium Battery Gets NASA's Attention - ASME

Tritium Battery Gets NASA's Attention - ASME

How is consent-based siting changing the prospects for used fuel management? -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

How is consent-based siting changing the prospects for used fuel management? -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Why Taking Hostages Is Such a Potent Tool in Warfare | Wilson Center

Why Taking Hostages Is Such a Potent Tool in Warfare | Wilson Center

Dan’s Idaho Nuclear Chili | Neutron Bytes

Dan’s Idaho Nuclear Chili | Neutron Bytes: This is a Thanksgiving tradition now published for the 16th year in a row here and previously at my former blog Idaho Samizdat  In the spirit of Thanksgiving, and wanting to take a break from readi…

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

The Deeper Dig: A plan for what’s left of Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant - VTDigger

The Deeper Dig: A plan for what’s left of Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant - VTDigger

Kerry to announce new U.S. fusion energy ambitions

Kerry to announce new U.S. fusion energy ambitions: Climate envoy nods to international cooperation

Waiting on the Nuclear Regulatory… | The Breakthrough Institute

Waiting on the Nuclear Regulatory… | The Breakthrough Institute: The Breakthrough Institute is an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting…

Top California Court Curbs PG&E-Induced Blackout Liability (1)

Top California Court Curbs PG&E-Induced Blackout Liability (1): Pacific Gas & Electric Co. customers have limited recourse for the billions of dollars in damages they sustained when weather conditions prompted days of power shutoffs to prevent wildfires in 2019, the California Supreme Court ruled Monday.

PG&E Shielded From Class Action Over 2019 Blackouts, California Supreme Court Says | The Recorder

PG&E Shielded From Class Action Over 2019 Blackouts, California Supreme Court Says | The Recorder: Writing for the high court, Justice Goodwin Liu said that while a $2.5 billion class action against PG&E is preempted, a more narrowly tailored suit targeting negligent utilities that shut power may survive.

PG&E not liable for power shut-off damages, California court rules

PG&E not liable for power shut-off damages, California court rules: The state Supreme Court ruled unanimously that PG&E doesn’t owe damages to customers for harm they suffered during the utility’s electricity shut-offs.

PG&E can't be sued over safety-related power shutoffs - Los Angeles Times

PG&E can't be sued over safety-related power shutoffs - Los Angeles Times: Customers cannot sue PG&E for losses from power shutoffs designed to protect the public from wildfires, the California Supreme Court ruled.

NuScale, ORNL to assess SMR use by industry : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News

NuScale, ORNL to assess SMR use by industry : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News: NuScale Power and the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory are to collaborate on a techno-economic assessment, studying a NuScale small modular reactor's ability to implement a cost-effective steam heat augmentation design.

Sri Lankan government has plans for nuclear, minister says : Nuclear Policies - World Nuclear News

Sri Lankan government has plans for nuclear, minister says : Nuclear Policies - World Nuclear News: Sri Lanka's government intends to include nuclear energy in its long-term plans, the country's Minister of Power and Energy said as the country's cabinet approved electricity sector reforms.

Corporate agreement furthers Canadian SMR collaboration : Corporate - World Nuclear News

Corporate agreement furthers Canadian SMR collaboration : Corporate - World Nuclear News: Ontario Power Generation subsidiary Laurentis Energy Partners and Saskatchewan utility SaskPower have announced details of a Master Services Agreement that will see them collaborate to advance the deployment of small modular reactors in Saskatchewan.

US to announce global nuclear fusion strategy at COP28 | Reuters

US to announce global nuclear fusion strategy at COP28 | Reuters: The U.S. will lay out the first international strategy to commercialize nuclear fusion power at the upcoming UN climate summit in Dubai, U.S. Special Envoy on Climate Change John Kerry will say on Monday, two sources familiar with the announcement said.

IAEA holds its annual nuclear law training program -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

IAEA holds its annual nuclear law training program -- ANS / Nuclear Newswire

Nuclear plant in Louisiana required emergency shutdown | Business News | nola.com

Nuclear plant in Louisiana required emergency shutdown | Business News | nola.com: Entergy’s River Bend nuclear power plant near St. Francisville was forced into a temporary emergency shutdown over the weekend due to a technical issue, but was brought back online the

(2) The 'Rules-Based Order' In Action - by Daniel Larison

(2) The 'Rules-Based Order' In Action - by Daniel Larison

Yes, Israel’s whole 56-year occupation of Gaza has to end. Now. – Globalities

Yes, Israel’s whole 56-year occupation of Gaza has to end. Now. – Globalities

Why Ridiculous Official Propaganda Still Works

Why Ridiculous Official Propaganda Still Works

China Launches Deep-Sea Mining Push to Corner Undersea Mineral Market

China Launches Deep-Sea Mining Push to Corner Undersea Mineral Market: The race is on to tap the riches of minerals in the high seas.

Dan Goldman Says He 'Mistakenly Used Wrong Word' In Trump Assassination Gaffe | ZeroHedge

Dan Goldman Says He 'Mistakenly Used Wrong Word' In Trump Assassination Gaffe | ZeroHedge: ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Putin plans to fly world's biggest nuclear missile - Satan 2 - over the South Pole in test launch' says Russian state media - before report is censored | Daily Mail Online

Putin plans to fly world's biggest nuclear missile - Satan 2 - over the South Pole in test launch' says Russian state media - before report is censored | Daily Mail Online: The Russian dictator is determined to flex his nuclear muscle to the West and will put his 208-ton intercontinental nuclear weapon - the Sarmat, aka 'Satan 2' - on 'combat duty' next month.

Monday, November 20, 2023

UN: World on track to double warming limit this century | The Hill

UN: World on track to double warming limit this century | The Hill

Magma Close to Surface in Iceland: Eruption Within Hours Or Days: A Geologic Review | Principia Scientific Intl.

Magma Close to Surface in Iceland: Eruption Within Hours Or Days: A Geologic Review | Principia Scientific Intl.

Earth likely passed key 2C warming point on two November days so far

Earth likely passed key 2C warming point on two November days so far: The 2-degree threshold for two-straight days is symbolic, but indicative of how swiftly the climate is warming.

Philippines considers deploying USNC microreactors : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News

Philippines considers deploying USNC microreactors : New Nuclear - World Nuclear News: The Philippines' largest electric distribution utility, the Manila Electric Company, has signed a cooperation agreement with Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation of the USA to study the potential deployment of one or more Micro-Modular Reactor Energy Systems in the Philippines.

Sweden plans new nuclear reactors by 2035, will share costs | Reuters

Sweden plans new nuclear reactors by 2035, will share costs | Reuters: Sweden's government said it aimed to build the equivalent of two new conventional nuclear reactors by 2035 on Thursday to meet surging demand for clean power from industry and transport and was prepared to take on some of the costs.

Philippines Signs 123 Pact Opening the Door to SMRs | Neutron Bytes

Philippines Signs 123 Pact Opening the Door to SMRs | Neutron Bytes: Philippines Signs 123 Pact with US Opening the Door to SMRs USNC Signs MOU with Manila Electric Co NuScale’s Interest in Philippine Energy Market Sweden Wants Two New Large-Scale Nuclear Power Plan…

Slovakia opposes inclusion of nuclear fuel in sanctions against Russia

Slovakia opposes inclusion of nuclear fuel in sanctions against Russia: Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár has said the government is seeking to study the impact of the next package of EU sanctions against Russia on Slovakia. Source: TASR, a news agency in Slovakia Details: Blanár considers sanctions against Russian nuclear fuel to be a "red line" for Slovakia.

The cost of nuclear | Canary Media

The cost of nuclear | Canary Media: Building reactors in South Korea is far cheaper than building in the U.S., but why?

Daily on Energy: NRC pressured to speed up, oil drops, and US tightens sanctions | Washington Examiner

Daily on Energy: NRC pressured to speed up, oil drops, and US tightens sanctions | Washington Examiner: Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

BTI’s Innovative Vision for NRC… | The Breakthrough Institute

BTI’s Innovative Vision for NRC… | The Breakthrough Institute: The Breakthrough Institute is an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting…

The Era of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Is Ending - WSJ

The Era of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China Is Ending - WSJ

SLO Can Lead California Toward A Carbon-free Future By Investing In Nuclear Technology

SLO Can Lead California Toward A Carbon-free Future By Investing In Nuclear Technology

Rethinking nuclear energy | Inquirer Opinion

Rethinking nuclear energy | Inquirer Opinion: At the sidelines of the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Leaders’ Summit in California last week, the Philippines and the United States signed the so-called “123 agreement” on

EPA Proposes Stronger Rules to Protect People from Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic Chemical Exposures | US EPA

EPA Proposes Stronger Rules to Protect People from Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic Chemical Exposures | US EPA: EPA News Release: EPA Proposes Stronger Rules to Protect People from Persistent, Bioaccumulative, and Toxic Chemical Exposures

NuScale Power to Collaborate with Oak Ridge National Laboratory for a Techno-Economic Assessment | Business Wire

NuScale Power to Collaborate with Oak Ridge National Laboratory for a Techno-Economic Assessment | Business Wire: NuScale and ORNL will assess a novel decarbonization path for a U.S. chemical company by pairing SMR technology with a heat augmentation system.

Kemmemer, Wyo., looks beyond its coal roots with a nuclear-power plant - The Washington Post

Kemmemer, Wyo., looks beyond its coal roots with a nuclear-power plant - The Washington Post: With a $4 billion plant on the horizon, Kemmerer, Wyo., symbolizes both its state’s changing energy landscape and the country’s nuclear-power ambitions.

Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) - Discussing dynamic probabilistic safety assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making

Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) - Discussing dynamic probabilistic safety assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making: International workshop convened experts in the field to United States.

US to Announce Nuclear Fusion Strategy at UAE COP28 | Neutron Bytes

US to Announce Nuclear Fusion Strategy at UAE COP28 | Neutron Bytes: Note to readers:  This post is part of the focused coverage by Neutron Bytes on fission and fusion developments at COP28.  Send press releases to: neutronbytes@gmail.comUS to Announce Nuc…

[Salon] Oil: lower for longer? - ArabDigest.org

Oil: lower for longer? Summary: although OPEC+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree modest additional trimming, growth in non-OPEC+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024. We thank our regular contributor Alastair Newton for today's newsletter. Alastair worked as a professional political analyst in the City of London from 2005 to 2015. Before that he spent 20 years as a career diplomat with the British Diplomatic Service. In 2015 he co-founded and is a director of Alavan Business Advisory Ltd. You can find Alastair’s latest AD podcast, Oil: the long good-bye here. For several months the market mantra on interest rates — echoing central banks in general and the US Federal Reserve in particular — has been “higher for longer”. The fact that inflation has eased recently hasn’t changed this. However, it is looking increasingly like the semi-related mantra for oil should be ‘lower for longer’, especially in the wake of the 16 November sell-off which saw benchmark Brent crude fall through US$80 per barrel (pb) for the first time since July. Even though there was something of a recovery the following day, taking Brent back above US$80pb, unless we see an even sharper uptick this week OPEC+ looks sure to be considering further cuts in output when it meets on 26 November. Bearing in mind that less than two months ago Brent was at US$96.55pb and many analysts were forecasting three figures imminently, some of the sell-off was almost certainly attributable to an unwinding of long positions — possibly belated because of continuing concerns over the possible geographical spread of the war, which markets appear to have dismissed. Now this is done, investors are look increasingly to 2024, further encouraged by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) November ‘Oil Market Report’, which was published on 13 November. The headline writers were quick to pick up on the following sentence in the report (and all too often turning “could” into “should” or even “will”!): With demand growth set to slow, the market could shift into surplus at the start of 2024. Similarly, commentators were inclined to ignore the following from the IAE report: For now, with demand still exceeding available supplies heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter, market balances will remain vulnerable to heightened economic and geopolitical risks – and further volatility ahead. Despite the IEA’s caution, its forecast of a possible (probable?) surplus next year is still important. What it means, in essence, is that OPEC+ has no choice other than to consider further cuts in addition to extending Saudi Arabia’s voluntary additional one million barrels per day (mbpd) which have brought its output down by a total of 25 percent to 9mbpd. Furthermore, Riyadh is likely to argue that it is already doing more than its share, especially when, according to Rystad Energy, Russia’s voluntary cut in output of 500,000bpd did not prevent it from shipping 354,000bpd more in October than its ceiling. (Three points of note here as follows: (a) total Russian oil shipments still fell slightly in October to around 7.5mbpd; (b) crude shipments per se are expected to fall this month thanks to a rebound in Russia’s refinery activity; and (c) although it is still a breach of the G7 price cap, according to Bloomberg benchmark Urals crude was trading at just US$66.19pb last week.) Growth in non-OPEC+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024 [photo credit: OPEC] The price action notwithstanding, further trimming may seem curious at a time when, according to the IEA, the cuts already implemented… …look set to keep the oil market in a significant deficit through year-end, with the OPEC+ alliance pumping 900kb/d below the demand for its crude. What is happening here is the following: Growth in global output is beating forecasts “with October output up 320kb/d [month-on-month]. Record output from the United States, Brazil and Guyana underpin this year’s 1.7mb/d increase in global oil supplies, to a record 101.8mb/d”; and, “In 2024, non-OPEC+ producers will continue to lead global growth, projected at 1.6mb/d, to an unprecedented 103.4mb/d”. The impact of this is nothing like as dramatic as we saw in 2014-16 when US tight oil was seriously eating into OPEC market share. But cuts in output by OPEC+, both existing and future, still stand to boost non-OPEC+ market share, shifting the supply/demand balance away from the cartel. In consequence, Saudi Arabia looks to have no choice but to extend its voluntary cut of 1mbpd, which is due to expire next month, through at least the first half of 2024; similarly Russia. Furthermore, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, quoted in a 16 November FT article, reckoned that “…Saudi Arabia will demand Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE chip in additional cuts, and that will be a painful discussion.” I agree. However, I think the UAE will push back for two reasons. First, Abu Dhabi’s long-running dispute with Riyadh over its baseline (the basis upon which its OPEC quota is calculated) has never been properly resolved despite a modest increase earlier this year. Second, as David Sheppard argued in a 17 November article in the FT, especially when it is about to host COP28 the UAE is mindful of its “growing role on the global stage” and keen to portray itself as a responsible player. As for a possible threat by Riyadh to undercut the entire market by boosting its output, I doubt this would carry the day. Indeed, rather than dragging partners into line it could cause a break-up of OPEC, as I laid out in the 11 July Newsletter. One obvious counterweight to this (also pinpointed by Mr Sheppard) is the possibility that, driven primarily by concern over possible domestic unrest, Gulf states in particular may feel obliged to agree to a cut in output as a gesture of solidarity with the Palestinians. However, I am not personally persuaded that this is likely to weigh heavily relative to economic considerations, including concern over a possible long term loss in market share to non-OPEC producers. I think more potent is the fact that, although the IEA is forecasting that demand in 2024 will reach a record 102.9mbpd, surplus supply throughout the year looks to be a distinct possibility, especially if global economic growth slows further as the IMF, inter alia, is forecasting. All this being said, for now at least my expectation is that — aside from extending existing cuts, be they voluntary or otherwise — any further trimming of output will be no more than minimal.

The Wrong Green Plan Can Mean Climate Disaster | RealClearPolicy

The Wrong Green Plan Can Mean Climate Disaster | RealClearPolicy: We must reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as fast as practically possible — whether ultra-green activists like it or not.

Sunday, November 19, 2023

The Dangers Only Multiply - TomDispatch.com

The Dangers Only Multiply - TomDispatch.com: The Dangers Only Multiply Could Israel’s War on Gaza Go Nuclear?

Gaza Marine: Is Israel-Palestine Conflict Caused by Offshore Gas Interests? - GreatGameIndia

Gaza Marine: Is Israel-Palestine Conflict Caused by Offshore Gas Interests? - GreatGameIndia: Some observers believe that the Israel-Palestine conflict was caused by offshore gas interests in Gaza, called the Gaza Marine

U.S. military quietly revokes planned contract for small nuclear plant at Alaska Air Force base - Alaska Beacon

U.S. military quietly revokes planned contract for small nuclear plant at Alaska Air Force base - Alaska Beacon: The U.S. military has rescinded the preliminary award of a contract to build a small-scale nuclear power plant at Eielson Air Force Base.