1The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
2Max Planck Institute of Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
We modeled the global atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. [...]
We obtained good agreement with measurements of 133Xe, at both T255 and T106 resolution. The comparison for 137Cs is less favorable, though not systematically biased based on the 137Cs emission estimate of 36.7 (20.1–53.1) PBq [petabecquerels (quadrillion becquerels)] by Stohl et al. (2012). This is equivalent to somewhat less than half the 137Cs source by Chernobyl (85 PBq, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (2006)). The estimate of 13 PBq by Chino et al. (2011) (revised to 8.8 PBq by Terada et al. (2012) and confirmed as a lower bound of 12 PBq by Winiarek et al. (2012), with an upper bound of 210 PBq, was also included in our comparison.
[...] Although the prevailing wind direction during the accident was in easterly direction, some of the atmospheric radioactivity was transported toward the west and southwest, and deposited in Japan and to a lesser extent reached the Philippines. Based on the above mentioned emission estimates, we calculated that an area of Japan of 34,000 km2 was contaminated by more than 40 kBqm−2 of 137Cs and 131I, to which 9.4 million people were exposed. Our model results indicate that a surface area of 60,000 km2 received a total deposition greater than 10 kBqm−2, a region inhabited by 46 million people.
[...] The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/1425/2013/acp-13-1425-2013.html
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