Ukraine, Russia and the EU Gas Drama: A Three-Way Game of Chicken
06/17/14
Nikolas K. Gvosdev
European Union, Energy, Sanctions, Europe, Ukraine, Russia
If Western support for Ukraine in the next few days does not move beyond words, then Poroshenko will be able to accurately assess what cards he has to play against the Kremlin.
Gazprom's recent decision to cease supplying natural gas to Ukraine
in the absence of any agreement on settling Ukraine's debts for past
gas deliveries as well as a new pricing framework for future shipments
now sets up Moscow, Kyiv and the EU in a tense three-way game of
chicken. Who will blink first?
The first question is whether or not Ukraine will begin to siphon off gas currently transiting its territory for delivery to European customers of Gazprom. With the fate of the South Stream pipeline—a
second transit network designed to directly connect Russian suppliers
with European customers and bypassing Ukraine altogether—currently in
limbo as the European Commission examines whether its construction
violates EU regulations, Russia would be anxious to trumpet any
Ukrainian "theft" of EU-bound gas to drive home the argument that
Europe's energy security depends on eliminating untrustworthy middlemen.
In turn, aware that European popular support for Ukraine may begin to
diminish if European populations begin to suffer energy shortages or
higher prices as a result of the disruption, the Ukrainian side may
decide not to interfere with gas transit and rely on the country's own
stockpiles of gas in order not to play into that Russian narrative.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-russia-the-eu-gas-drama-three-way-game-chicken-10683
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