John Mecklin
In a shocking but not surprising announcement on Tuesday,
President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from
the Iran nuclear deal. As world leaders reel from the announcement, the Bulletin reached
out to leading experts and asked what Trump's actions mean in both the
short- and long-term. Here’s what they are saying:
Abbas Milani
For Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, and his allies, the US scuttling of the JCPOA will be a god-send.
Dina Esfandiary
Trump’s
decision to pull the US out of the Iran deal only serves to create a
new crisis on an issue that was shelved more than two years ago.
William H. Tobey
The decision to leave the JCPOA is a blunder. The deal has significant flaws, but withdrawing only compounds those problems.
Siegfried S. Hecker
Withdrawing from the deal has already alienated US allies and greatly diminished US ability to limit Iran’s nuclear direction.
Ezra Friedman
Just
before President Trump's announcement, Ezra Friedman posted about how a
US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal could lead to a Middle East
with more than just one or two nuclear-armed states. |
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Sharon Squassoni
Science
and Security Board member Sharon Squassoni writes that, for Donald
Trump, getting out of the Iran deal is the political equivalent of
firing someone on “The Apprentice.” It is a short-term action completely
divorced from any consideration of long-term consequences.
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
A
dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it has the real
potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of
the Iraq War pale in comparison.
Martin B. Malin
If
the JCPOA collapses, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as
well as the UN Security Council may be rendered powerless.
Mark Hibbs
Right
off the bat, cheerleaders for the Iran deal, following negotiators’
optimistic talking points, awarded it an A grade, and naïve and
disingenuous demonizers just as promptly gave it an F. Into this breach
the president stepped on May 8.
Frank von Hippel
President Trump has talked at length about getting "a better deal," but he has done nothing to achieve that goal.
Ariane Tabatabai
Fluent in Persian, French, and English, Bulletin columnist Ariane Tabatabai has become a go-to expert for the media for thoughtful, nuanced analysis on all things nuclear and Iran. Read her April column on what Iranian hardliners are saying on social media, and check her Twitter feed to see an updated thread with new Iranian memes added. A special collection of her columns can be found here.
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Graham Allison
If
summarizing a reaction in a tweet: bad choice. If given a few more
characters: bad for the US, and bad for our ally Israel, which stands
much closer to this front line.
Kelsey Davenport
It
would be premature to declare the nuclear deal dead. Washington’s P5+1
partners and the European Union have powerful tools at their disposal to
block the secondary effects of US sanctions.
Joshua Pollack
Iran’s
nuclear ambitions may not be a solved problem in any ultimate sense,
but President Obama succeeded in putting the issue in abeyance for a
generation. That achievement won’t be improved upon in the foreseeable
future. It should not have been discarded so lightly, or at all.
Lawrence J. Korb
In his remarks reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump gave no indication that he has a Plan B.
Robert Rosner
Science
and Security Board member Robert Rosner describes how, by stepping out
alone, the US is conducting a diplomatic and economic experiment.
For 8 days in May, you can take a virtual reality tour through the Doomsday Clock. See our events page for details.
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