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Thursday, May 10, 2018

Bulletin of Atomic Scientists May 10, 2018

Thursday, May 10, 2018

 
John Mecklin

In a shocking but not surprising announcement on Tuesday, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. As world leaders reel from the announcement, the Bulletin reached out to leading experts and asked what Trump's actions mean in both the short- and long-term. Here’s what they are saying:
 

 
Abbas Milani

For Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, and his allies, the US scuttling of the JCPOA will be a god-send.
 
 
 
Dina Esfandiary
 
Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran deal only serves to create a new crisis on an issue that was shelved more than two years ago.
 

 
William H. Tobey

The decision to leave the JCPOA is a blunder. The deal has significant flaws, but withdrawing only compounds those problems.
 
 
 
Siegfried S. Hecker
 
Withdrawing from the deal has already alienated US allies and greatly diminished US ability to limit Iran’s nuclear direction.


 
 
Ezra Friedman
 
Just before President Trump's announcement, Ezra Friedman posted about how a US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal could lead to a Middle East with more than just one or two nuclear-armed states.
 
 
Sharon Squassoni
 
Science and Security Board member Sharon Squassoni writes that, for Donald Trump, getting out of the Iran deal is the political equivalent of firing someone on “The Apprentice.” It is a short-term action completely divorced from any consideration of long-term consequences.
 

 
Seyed Hossein Mousavian

A dangerous new US-Iran escalation will now ensue, and it has the real potential of resulting in a devastating war that will make the costs of the Iraq War pale in comparison.
 

 
Martin B. Malin

If the JCPOA collapses, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as the UN Security Council may be rendered powerless.
 

 
Mark Hibbs

Right off the bat, cheerleaders for the Iran deal, following negotiators’ optimistic talking points, awarded it an A grade, and naïve and disingenuous demonizers just as promptly gave it an F. Into this breach the president stepped on May 8.
 
 
 
Frank von Hippel

President Trump has talked at length about getting "a better deal," but he has done nothing to achieve that goal.

 
 
Ariane Tabatabai
 
Fluent in Persian, French, and English, Bulletin columnist Ariane Tabatabai has become a go-to expert for the media for thoughtful, nuanced analysis on all things nuclear and Iran. Read her April column on what Iranian hardliners are saying on social media, and check her Twitter feed to see an updated thread with new Iranian memes added. A special collection of her columns can be found here.
 
 


 
Graham Allison

If summarizing a reaction in a tweet: bad choice. If given a few more characters: bad for the US, and bad for our ally Israel, which stands much closer to this front line.
 

 
Kelsey Davenport

It would be premature to declare the nuclear deal dead. Washington’s P5+1 partners and the European Union have powerful tools at their disposal to block the secondary effects of US sanctions.
 
 
 
Joshua Pollack
 
Iran’s nuclear ambitions may not be a solved problem in any ultimate sense, but President Obama succeeded in putting the issue in abeyance for a generation. That achievement won’t be improved upon in the foreseeable future. It should not have been discarded so lightly, or at all.
 

 
Lawrence J. Korb

In his remarks reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump gave no indication that he has a Plan B.

 
 
Robert Rosner
 
Science and Security Board member Robert Rosner describes how, by stepping out alone, the US is conducting a diplomatic and economic experiment.
 


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