Die Bilanz der Nord Stream-Sprengung - GERMAN-FOREIGN-POLICY.com

Die Bilanz der Nord Stream-Sprengung - GERMAN-FOREIGN-POLICY.com https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/9356 The balance of the Nord Stream explosion A year ago, the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up. The act has still not been clarified; the consequences for the natural gas supply of the Federal Republic weigh heavily. 26 SEP 2023 War crimes or terrorist attack The attack on the two Nord Stream pipelines, which was carried out a year ago today, has still not been clarified. Already immediately after the crime, experts were convinced that the explosion must have been carried out on behalf of the state; the amount of explosives and the logistical effort to bring about an explosion that is still registered as an earthquake at a considerable distance from geological measuring stations are too large, as was the case with the blasting of the Nord Stream pipelines. Research by the investigative US journalist Seymour Hersh revealed that the attack was carried out by US agencies in cooperation with soldiers of the Norwegian armed forces. 1] Politics and the media in Germany, on the other hand, favor a different thesis according to which Polish and Ukrainian private individuals are guilty.[ 2] Of course, this contradicts the conviction that the implementation was not possible without skills and capacities that only states have. Lawyers classify the act, if it had been committed by Russia or Ukraine, as a war crime, a third country had carried it out, as a terrorist attack. There will be no damages, explains the Bonn international law lawyer Stefan Talmon: In court, any perpetrator state can invoke so-called state immunity, which "also applies to such illegal attacks." 3] Also excluded in the future If it is still not clear who has blown up the two natural gas pipelines or three of their four strands from Russia to Germany, the consequences are clearly obvious: The option of obtaining larger quantities of pipeline gas from Russia is omitted not only for the present, but also for the future - even in the event that the possible agreement on a ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev should be associated with a reduction in the sanctions against Russia. Observers do not rule this out. Although the idea that the Federal Republic could eventually obtain Russian pipeline gas again at some point is widely considered "unsense" or even "absurd" among experts. 4] The example of Japan shows that this does not have to be the case under all circumstances. Tokyo participates in the Russia sanctions of the West, but expressly assumes the import of Russian liquefied gas, on which the country is dependent. The Japanese companies Mitsui and Mitsubishi still hold a total of 22.5 percent of the Russian natural gas production project Sachalin 2, which covers around 9 percent of Japanese liquefied gas imports. 5] Tokyo is also seeking to secure Japanese participation in the Russian Arctic LNG 2 funding project, although the project is currently the target of new US sanctions.[ 6] New import structures The definitive end of the purchase of natural gas via the Nord Stream tubes has made a rapid conversion of the German import structures necessary. If the Federal Republic still obtained a good third of its natural gas via Nord Stream 1 alone at the beginning of 2022, the current industry statistics show the import from Russia with zero since September 2022. 7] Norway has risen to Russia's largest supplier, which recently accounted for almost half of all German natural gas imports; followed by the Netherlands and Belgium. The share of liquefied gas, which was delivered directly via the new import terminals on the German coast, amounted to only 6.4 percent in the first half of 2023. 8] According to the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), the latter came for the most part from the USA. However, the information reflects the actual sources of natural gas consumed in Germany only insufficiently. For example, liquefied gas is also imported from Belgium, which is regasified in Zeebrugge and then transported on. The BDEW states that cross-border traded gas cannot be clearly assigned to countries of origin. The reason is "the partly close meshing of the European pipeline network" in which "the natural gas types of different origins constantly mix." 9] More expensive than before However, information about the liquefied gas imports allows information from the analysis company Kpler, for example. Citing these, the Financial Times recently reported that the EU's largest liquefied gas supplier was the United States in the first seven months of 2023 with just under 43 percent of total imports. The second largest quantity came from Russia with around 16 percent. 10] According to calculations by the organization global witness, which are also based on data from Kpler, the EU has increased its imports of Russian liquefied gas by 40 percent in the period from January to July 2023 compared to the pre-war comparison period in 2021; today it buys more than half of all Russian liquefied gas exports - a good 52 percent. 11] The second largest customer of Russian liquefied gas worldwide is therefore Spain, which acquires around 18 percent of all Russian exports - hardly less than the leader China (20 percent); the third largest customer of Russian liquefied gas is therefore Belgium (17 percent), one of the three major suppliers of the Federal Republic. The same applies to Russian liquefied gas: It is more expensive than pipeline gas due to the complex processing. The EU states, including Germany, are therefore paying much more for natural gas that they import from Russia today than before the Ukraine war. Particularly harmful to the environment The end of the natural gas purchase via the Nord Stream lines has prompted the federal government in particular to push ahead with the construction of liquefied gas import terminals on the German coasts even more vigorously than before. Terminals are already in regular operation in Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel and Lubmin; further ones are planned in Stade and in front of Rügen as well as a second one in Wilhelmshaven. 12] There is protest against the plans to build a terminal off Rügen: environmental activists fear serious damage to the regional ecosystem. It is also criticized that US liquid gas in particular is imported; this is considered particularly harmful to the environment, since it is mainly promoted by fracking. Last but not least, it is said that the fact that the terminals are expected to be used by 2043 extends the time in which fossil fuels are still used. 13] Even Nord Stream 2, long ago completed, would have paid for itself much earlier. [1] S. Tatort Ostsee (II) and Tatort Ostsee (III). [2], [3] Matthias von Hein: Nordstream-Spgung: A lot of speculation, few facts. dw.com 25.09.2023. [4] Carola Tunk: Nord Stream attacks: Economic relations with Russia after the end of the war - yes or no? berliner-zeitung.de 19.09.2023. [5] Davide Ghilotti: Japanese trader Mitsui has no plans for Russian LNG exit. upstreamonline.com 21.06.2023. [6] Amidst Arctic investment, Japan pledges G7 cooperation on fresh sanctions on Russia. rcinet.ca 25.09.2023. [7] BDEW: Natural gas data up to date. 31.08.2023. [8] German LNG terminals hardly import gas. tagesschau.de 14.07.2023. [9] BDEW: Natural gas data up to date. 31.08.2023. [10] Alice Hancock, Shotaro Tani: EU imports record volumes of liquefied natural gas from Russia. ft.com 30.08.2023. [11] EU imports of Russian LNG have jumped by 40% since the invasion of Ukraine. globalwitness.org 30.08.2023. [12], [13] LNG: How much liquefied natural gas is currently arriving in Germany? ndr.de 25.09.2023.