A Perspective on the Dangers of Plutonium

To better understand the present dangers of Plutonium, this paper by William Sutcliffe, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is posted in its entirety (less Appendix A. and B.)
UCRL-JC-118825
A Perspective on the Dangers of Plutonium
W. G. Sutcliffe, R. H. Condit, W. G. Mansfield, D. S. Myers, D. W. Layton, and P. W. Murphy
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
April 14, 1995
Abstract
Following the seizure of 10 ounces of plutonium at the Munich airport in August 1994, some press accounts stated that terrorists could kill “hundreds of thousands of people” by introducing plutonium into a municipal water supply. In response to such incorrect and misleading statements, we describe the acute and long-term health effects that can arise from ingesting or inhaling various amounts of plutonium. Our estimates indicate that plutonium introduced into drinking water supplies would produce a radiation dose much less than normal background, and could kill only a very few people (by inducing cancers that might take years to appear). We also estimate the (considerably greater) risks associated with the inhalation of plutonium, clarifying press claims that “a tiny speck … can cause lung cancer.” We estimate the number of people that might die of cancer if terrorists were to introduce plutonium into the atmosphere in a large city. This paper provides a scientific perspective for evaluating possible terrorist threats.