A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
(This guest post by Gail the Actuary appeared at The Oil Drum. It is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 U.S. License.)
The EIA published International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO 2011) on September 19, showing energy projections to 2035. One summary stated, "Global Energy Use to Jump 53%, largely driven by strong demand from places like India and China."
It seems to me that this estimate is misleadingly high. The EIA is placing too much emphasis on what demand would be, if the price were low enough. In fact, oil, natural gas, and coal are all getting more difficult (and expensive) to extract. Prices will need to be much higher than today to cover the cost of extraction plus taxes countries choose to levy on energy extraction. The required high energy prices are likely to lead to recessionary impacts, which in turn will cut back demand for energy products of all types.
We live in a finite world. While it is true that huge resources of oil, natural gas, and coal are still theoretically available, we are starting to reach practical limits regarding extraction at prices that do not lead to economic contraction.
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