Beware of Gloom in Energy Models
Micheal Lynch, US News & WR
The debate about energy policy and technology (or fuel) choice often involves well-meaning, fresh-faced young analysts who don't notice how old-timers like myself wince when they cite "models" and "analysis" as supporting a position. I actually worked on a model of the world oil market written on a mainframe computer, and remember when, in the 1970s, economic models were treated with near-godlike awe. There was even a rubber stamp made that (facetiously, presumably) said, "This came from a computer and is not to be questioned or disbelieved. "
The debate about energy policy and technology (or fuel) choice often involves well-meaning, fresh-faced young analysts who don't notice how old-timers like myself wince when they cite "models" and "analysis" as supporting a position. I actually worked on a model of the world oil market written on a mainframe computer, and remember when, in the 1970s, economic models were treated with near-godlike awe. There was even a rubber stamp made that (facetiously, presumably) said, "This came from a computer and is not to be questioned or disbelieved. "
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