Impacts of Shutting Down Most US Coal Power, Part 2

More Optimal Power Generation Mix Required to Shutdown 80% of Coal Power – Displacing most existing Coal Power by expanding Wind+Solar Power to 30% of total U.S. net generation in 2040 will also require expanding Natural Gas and Nuclear Power capacity above the AEO 2013 projections.  Assuming that Nuclear Power net generation capacity is expanded by a feasible 300 TWh by 2040 and Natural Gas Power is expanded as needed to supply the balance of the ‘baseload gap’ 2015-2039, a final AEA 2015-2040 Power capacity mix projection was completed.  Refer to the following graph.

Figure 3 – ‘AEA 40% RE’ Final U.S. Power Capacity Projection: 2015-2040

GW’s

Data Source: EIA AEO 2013 Electricity Generating Capacity and NREL Figure 3-2, ‘Capacity and generation expansion in the 80% RE-ITI scenario for CY2040.    AEA 2020 20% RE, 2030 25% RE and 2040 40% RE based on 80% Coal Power shutdown by 2040, 30% Wind+Solar penetration in 2040, 40 GW Nuclear expansion by 2040, up to a 70 GW Natural gas expansion in 2029 (which declines to zero in 2040); all other power capacities unchanged from AEO 2013 data.

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