Abstract
The
latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report
widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C
to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack
of consensus between estimates based on models and historical
observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and
are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian
methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the
radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of
interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes
display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to
68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise
only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved
centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with
model-derived ECS estimates.
- Climate Sensitivity
- Radiative Forcing
- Climate Feedbacks
- Bayesian Inference
- Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=d99316d082-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-d99316d082-153856085
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