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Over
the decades since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, the worldwide
taboo against the use of nuclear weapons drove agreements such as SALT,
START and the INF Treaty. Over the last year, however, the taboo seems
to be weakening: North Korea continues to test nuclear weapons, Russia
is apparently re-thinking its commitment to the INF Treaty, there’s talk
of a German nuclear weapon, and US president Donald Trump has wondered why, if the US has nuclear weapons, it would not use them.
The July/August issue of the Bulletin’s digital journal explores “After midnight,” an unsparing look at the aftermath of the use of nuclear weapons. Bulletin editor John Mecklin states: “In this special issue, ‘After midnight,’ top experts examine the ethics and practicalities of preparing a humanitarian response to the use of nuclear weapons, some realistic scenarios that could lead to regional nuclear weapons use—mini-Armageddons, if you will excuse the oxymoron—and various ways in which nuclear warfare might be forestalled or, in the event the unthinkable begins, stopped.” Here’s what you need to know: Introduction: Into the aftermath John Mecklin Free-access article Interview: NUKEMAP creator Alex Wellerstein puts nuclear risk on the radar Elisabeth Eaves Free-access article US cities are not medically prepared for a nuclear detonation Jerome M. Hauer Free-access article The right planning now will save countless lives after a nuclear attack Dan Hanfling, Frederick M. Burkle, Jr., and Cham Dallas After nuclear midnight: The impacts of a nuclear war in India and Pakistan Karthika Sasikumar A plausible scenario of nuclear war in Europe, and how to deter it: A perspective from Estonia Jüri Luik and Tomas Jermalavičius Nuclear foreboding: Future shadows cast by nuclear winter Richard Turco  The N.EX.T. Project: Arms control and disarmament approaches for a deadlocked ageIntroduction: Nuclear disarmament and arms control for the next decade Ulrich Kühn Free-access article Europe’s nuclear woes: Mitigating the challenges of the next years Ulrich Kühn, Shatabhisha Shetty, and Polina Sinovets What arguments motivate citizens to demand nuclear disarmament? Anne I. Harrington, Eliza Gheorghe, and Anya Loukianova Fink Nuclear disarmament summits: A proposal to break the international impasse Kelsey Davenport, Jana Puglierin, and Petr Topychkanov The future of US-Russian nuclear deterrence and arms control Tatiana Anichkina, Anna Péczeli, Nickolas Roth Amid high tensions, an urgent need for nuclear restraint Anastasia Malygina, Sven-Eric Fikenscher, and Jenny Nielsen Nuclear Notebook Indian nuclear forces, 2017 Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris Free-access article Book Review Preserving biodiversity, preventing climate disaster: Childish dreams or audacious strategies? Liam Heneghan Additional Reading  Bunkers for the 0.003 percentAn interview with Garrett M. Graff Elisabeth Eaves Free-access article on the Bulletin website |
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Michele Kearney's Nuclear Wire - Major Energy and Environmental News and Commentary affecting the Nuclear Industry. Nuclear Activities
Thursday, July 6, 2017
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Special Issue: After midnight
China backs hundreds of global coal power projects
China backs hundreds of global coal power projects
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/China_backs_hundreds_of_global_coal_power_projects_report_999.html
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/China_backs_hundreds_of_global_coal_power_projects_report_999.html
Germany Pushing For $10 Billion Expansion Of Russian Gas Pipeline
Germany Pushing For $10 Billion Expansion Of Russian Gas Pipeline
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/06/germany-pushing-10-billion-expansion-russian-gas-pipeline/
US Warns China That Their Trade With North Korea Will Impact US - China Trade
US Warns China That Their Trade With North Korea Will Impact US - China Trade
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2017/07/us-warns-china-that-their-trade-with.html
Russia And China Prepared To Block U.S. Calls For More Sanctions On North Korea
Russia And China Prepared To Block U.S. Calls For More Sanctions On North Korea
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2017/07/russia-and-china-prepared-to-block-us.html
Germany Hits a New Record With 35 Percent Renewables in Electricity Production
Germany Hits a New Record With 35 Percent Renewables in Electricity Production
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/germany_new_record_35_percent_renewables_electricity_production_20170705
Gas Interests Opposing U.S. Nuke Industry’s State-by-State Strategy
Gas Interests Opposing U.S. Nuke Industry’s State-by-State Strategy
https://atomicinsights.com/gas-interests-opposing-u-s-nuke-industrys-state-state-strategy/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AtomicInsights+%28Atomic+Insights%29
This Is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities This Is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-cities-climate-change-21584?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=d99316d082-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-d99316d082-153856085
Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity
Abstract
The
latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report
widened the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) range from 2° to 4.5°C
to an updated range of 1.5° to 4.5°C in order to account for the lack
of consensus between estimates based on models and historical
observations. The historical ECS estimates range from 1.5° to 3°C and
are derived assuming a linear radiative response to warming. A Bayesian
methodology applied to 24 models, however, documents curvature in the
radiative response to warming from an evolving contribution of
interannual to centennial modes of radiative response. Centennial modes
display stronger amplifying feedbacks and ultimately contribute 28 to
68% (90% credible interval) of equilibrium warming, yet they comprise
only 1 to 7% of current warming. Accounting for these unresolved
centennial contributions brings historical records into agreement with
model-derived ECS estimates.
- Climate Sensitivity
- Radiative Forcing
- Climate Feedbacks
- Bayesian Inference
- Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/7/e1602821?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=d99316d082-The_Download&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-d99316d082-153856085
Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017 BNEF’s annual long-term forecast of global electric vehicle (EV) adoption to 2040.
Volvo goes electric, ditches cars powered solely by gas
Volvo goes electric, ditches cars powered solely by gas
Volvo says it will only
build electric and hybrid vehicles starting in 2019, making it the first
major automaker to abandon cars and SUVs powered solely by the internal
combustion engine. …
Continue Reading
http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/07/electric-vehicle-volvo-goes-electric-ditches-cars-powered-solely-by-gas.html?cmpid=enl_pennenergy_pennenergydailypower_2017-07-06&email_address=micheletkearney@gmail.com&eid=288118515&bid=1803685
Radiological, Chemical And Biological Defence Troops: to meet their 100th anniversary with new armaments
Radiological, Chemical And Biological Defence Troops: to meet their 100th anniversary with new armaments
http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12132247@egNews
Now, nuclear material can be traced even after they are moved
Now, nuclear material can be traced even after they are moved
http://www.newsr.in/n/Science/75ec1srd0/Now-nuclear-material-can-be-traced-even-after.htm
IAEA head visits Bangladesh's Roopur nuclear site
IAEA head visits Bangladesh's Roopur nuclear site
http://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsiaea-head-visits-bangladeshs-roopur-nuclear-site-5862883
U.S. won’t fine company for spilling radioactive sludge
U.S. won’t fine company for spilling radioactive sludge
http://www.bclocalnews.com/business/432806483.html
Poised to outlaw nuclear weapons for the first time
Poised to outlaw nuclear weapons for the first time
http://thebulletin.org/poised-outlaw-nuclear-weapons-first-time
Sweden Nuclear Power Market Share, Opportunities, Segmentation and Forecast to 2030
Sweden Nuclear Power Market Share, Opportunities, Segmentation and Forecast to 2030
https://www.wesrch.com/business/paper-details/press-paper-BU1HWO000JSAU-sweden-nuclear-power-market-share-opportunities-segmentation-and-forecast-to-2030
United States Nuclear Waste Management System market competition by top manufacturers/players, with Nuclear Waste Management System sales volume, price, revenue By 2017
United States Nuclear Waste Management System market competition by top manufacturers/players, with Nuclear Waste Management System sales volume, price, revenue By 2017
http://www.mynewsdesk.com/us/chemicalgqyr/pressreleases/united-states-nuclear-waste-management-system-market-competition-by-top-manufacturers-slash-players-with-nuclear-waste-management-system-sales-volume-dot-dot-dot-2053287?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=Alert&utm_content=pressrelease
US Conference of Mayors Approves Resolution Calling for 100 Percent Renewable Energy in American Cities
US Conference of Mayors Approves Resolution Calling for 100 Percent Renewable Energy in American Cities
Renewable Energy World Editors | June 27, 2017
The U.S. Conference of Mayors in Miami yesterday approved a resolution calling for 100 percent renewable energy in cities across the U.S. by 2035. http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2017/06/us-conference-of-mayors-approves-resolution-calling-for-100-percent-renewable-energy-in-american-cities.html?cmpid=enl_rew_windenergynews_2017-07-06&email_address=micheletkearney@gmail.com&eid=288118515&bid=1803280
The U.S. Conference of Mayors in Miami yesterday approved a resolution calling for 100 percent renewable energy in cities across the U.S. by 2035. http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2017/06/us-conference-of-mayors-approves-resolution-calling-for-100-percent-renewable-energy-in-american-cities.html?cmpid=enl_rew_windenergynews_2017-07-06&email_address=micheletkearney@gmail.com&eid=288118515&bid=1803280
Opening A New Era For U.S. Offshore Energy
Opening A New Era For U.S. Offshore Energy
By By Energy Tomorrow Blog, / Wednesday, July 5, 2017 10:00 AM
The Trump administration is taking the
first step to more fully harness the United States’ offshore oil and
natural gas wealth, beginning work on a new five-year offshore leasing
plan – the federal blueprint for future offshore development. It’s great
news for America’s future energy security, for consumers and our
economy. President Trump’s executive order in April called
Keep reading →http://breakingenergy.com/2017/07/05/opening-a-new-era-for-u-s-offshore-energy/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=53927584&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8WnkVYfMTTGqBIoughh_2jwy5MlmBJb6vwjNqEnQmA05PphuU-AGD8qLTB0aEM-1UXPMs6BOuRaBxFOUDmgq-5CiybUg&_hsmi=53927584
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Wednesday, July 5, 2017
The Future of Energy: Looks Like It’s Still Coal
The Future of Energy: Looks Like It’s Still Coal
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/07/the-future-of-energy-looks-like-its-still-coal.phpCredibility of Influential Paper On ‘100% Renewables’ Challenged by Peer-Reviewed Critique
Credibility of Influential Paper On ‘100% Renewables’ Challenged by Peer-Reviewed Critique
https://atomicinsights.com/credibility-influential-paper-100-renewables-challenged-peer-reviewed-critique/
The Energy Collective Daily: Task Force Recommends Clear, Consistent Financial Reporting of Climate Risks
Task Force Recommends Clear, Consistent Financial Reporting of Climate Risks | The Energy Collective Daily |
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- Task Force Recommends Clear, Consistent Financial Reporting of Climate Risks
- The Surprising New Energy Side of Shell
- Even as Renewables Increase, Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate U.S. Energy Mix
- The Global Oil Demand Driver That Is Being Ignored
- Drive an Electric Car? One in Three States Now Charge You Extra
- In Michigan, Wind Equals Economic Opportunity
NASA will test simple nuclear power system which will be in the 1 to 10 kilowatt power range
NASA will test simple nuclear power system which will be in the 1 to 10 kilowatt power range
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/07/nasa-will-test-simple-nuclear-power-system-which-will-be-in-the-1-to-10-kilowatt-power-range.html
IAEA: Japan's Reports on Conditions at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Japan's Reports on Conditions at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
On 3 July 2017, Japan provided the IAEA with a copy of a report on the
discharge record and the seawater monitoring results at the
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station during June, which the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs has sent to all international Missions in Japan.
The report contains information on discharges from the subdrain and groundwater drain systems, as well as on groundwater bypassing conducted during the month of June. In both cases, in advance of the action, TEPCO analyzes the quality of the groundwater to be discharged and announces the results. These results confirm that the radiation level of sampled water are substantially below the operational targets set by TEPCO.
The report contains information on discharges from the subdrain and groundwater drain systems, as well as on groundwater bypassing conducted during the month of June. In both cases, in advance of the action, TEPCO analyzes the quality of the groundwater to be discharged and announces the results. These results confirm that the radiation level of sampled water are substantially below the operational targets set by TEPCO.
Even as renewables increase, fossil fuels continue to dominate U.S. energy mix
Today in Energy
Even as renewables increase, fossil fuels continue to dominate U.S. energy mix
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
Fossil fuels have provided more than 80% of total U.S. energy consumption for more than 100 years. Since 1928, when consumption of natural gas surpassed that of biomass, the three fossil fuels—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—have been the most consumed fuels in the United States. In 2016, fossil fuels accounted for 81% of total U.S. energy consumption, the lowest fossil fuel share in the past century.
In 2016, the renewable share of energy consumption in the United States was 10.5%. This was the largest renewable share since the 1930s, when overall energy consumption was lower and the amount of biomass consumption (mainly wood) was relatively high. The greatest growth in renewables over the past decade has been in solar and wind electricity generation. Liquid biofuel consumption—more than half of which is ethanol blended into motor gasoline—has also increased in recent years, contributing to the growing renewable share of total energy consumption.
In addition to the increasing share of renewables, the decline in the fossil fuel share of consumption is attributable mainly to declines in coal consumption. U.S. coal consumption fell nearly 9% in 2016, following a 14% drop in 2015. Overall, U.S. coal consumption has declined almost 38% since 2005. In each of the past 20 years, the power sector has accounted for more than 90% of total U.S. coal consumption.
Petroleum, which encompasses nearly all transportation fuels and several petroleum-based fuels used in homes, businesses, and industries, continues to be the largest source of energy consumption in the United States. Petroleum consumption has increased in each of the past four years.
Consumption of natural gas has risen in 9 of the past 10 years. As recently as 2006, the United States consumed more coal than natural gas (in energy-equivalent terms), but as natural gas consumption has increased—particularly in the electric power sector—natural gas use in 2016 was about twice that of coal.
Principal contributor: Michael Mobilia
Construction costs for most power plant types have fallen in recent years
Today in Energy
Construction costs for most power plant types have fallen in recent years
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Electric Generator Construction Costs
Based on EIA survey data for new, utility-scale electric generators (those with a capacity greater than one megawatt), capacity-weighted average construction costs for many generator types have fallen in recent years. Annual changes in construction costs include the effects of differences in the geographic distribution of installed capacity between years, differences in technology types, and other changes in capital and financing costs.
EIA began collecting data on construction costs for new utility-scale generators installed in 2013. The data for each year reflect projects completed in that year. Because power plants are often constructed over several years, reported costs are not necessarily indicative of the cost of a project initiated in that year. Government grants, tax benefits, and other incentives are excluded from these costs.
Construction costs alone do not determine the economic attractiveness of a generation technology. Other factors such as fuel costs (for generators that consume fuel), utilization rates, financial incentives, and state policies also affect project economics and, in turn, the kinds of power plants that are built.
In 2015, wind, natural gas, and solar were the most commonly added capacity types, adding 8.1 gigawatts (GW), 6.5 GW, and 3.2 GW, respectively. In the case of wind and solar, almost all of these additions (98% and 91%, respectively) were at new plants, as opposed to new generators at existing plants.
For natural gas, about 60% of the capacity added in 2015 was new generators at new plants, and the remaining 40% were new generators at existing plants. For other fuels such as hydro and petroleum liquids, which had relatively little capacity added in 2015, almost all of those additions were located at existing plants. Construction costs for battery storage units are available for the first time in 2015.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Electric Generator Construction Costs
The capacity-weighted cost of installing wind turbines was $1,661 per kilowatt (kW) in 2015, a 12% decrease from 2013. Costs tend to be lower for larger wind plants, as plants above 100 megawatts (MW) averaged lower costs than those below 100 MW, likely reflecting economies of scale.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Electric Generator Construction Costs
The average cost of natural gas generators installed in 2015 was $696/kW, a 28% decline from 2013. Nearly 75% of the natural gas capacity installed in 2015 were combined-cycle units, which had an average installed cost of $614/kW. Combined-cycle natural gas plants include at least one combustion turbine and one steam turbine and are generally more efficient than plants with combustion turbines alone. About 1.5 GW of natural gas plants with only combustion turbines were installed in 2015, at an average cost of $779/kW. Natural gas plants with internal combustion engines were more expensive, averaging $1,798/kW for the 0.2 GW installed in 2015.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Electric Generator Construction Costs
The cost of utility-scale solar photovoltaic generators declined 21% between 2013 and 2015, from $3,705/kW to $2,921/kW. More than half of the utility-scale solar photovoltaic systems installed in the United States track the sun through the day, and in general, those systems cost slightly more than those installed at fixed angles. Construction costs differed slightly by technology type, with crystalline silicon systems (73% of the 2015 installed solar photovoltaic capacity) costing slightly less than systems with thin-film panels made using cadmium telluride.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Electric Generator Construction Costs
More information is available in EIA’s construction costs data, which is based on data collected through EIA’s Annual Electric Generator Report (EIA-860). Construction costs for generators installed in 2016 are expected to be available in January 2018.
Principal contributor: Owen Comstock
Nuclear Emergencies at Sea: Experts Practice Emergency Communication Procedures
Nuclear Emergencies at Sea: Experts Practice Emergency Communication Procedures
A simulated table-top exercise took place on 28 June 2017 at the IAEA headquarters. (Photo: W. Gruenwald/IAEA)
Experts from France, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain and the
United Kingdom took part in a simulated table-top exercise on 28 June to
practice their transboundary cooperation and communication in
emergencies relating to nuclear materials being transported by sea.
Twenty-four participants took part in a fictional scenario played out at the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC) in Vienna involving a fire breaking out on a ship transporting nuclear waste. Through the use of ‘injects’ which reflected how real time events might unfold, the participants were asked to assess given information, respond, and describe their respective decisions and actions to the group.
“Safety of maritime transport of nuclear materials, as well as the preparedness to respond to emergencies, are the responsibilities of States, and given the potential effects such an incident would have on several countries, close coordination and communication between the authorities of affected countries is crucial,” said Elena Buglova, Head of the IEC.
In the early 2000s Coastal and Shipping States, including those involved in last week’s table-top exercise, set up a Coastal State-Shipping State Dialogue as an informal consultation and information exchange mechanism relating to nuclear maritime transport. The table-top exercise was a model on which to test international cooperation through the Dialogue.
“Exercises like this help build confidence and promote transparency among countries that have to deal with shipments of nuclear material,” said Ambassador Pedro Moitinho de Almeida, Permanent Representative of Portugal to the International Organizations in Vienna and Chair of the Dialogue. “This allows us to practice emergency response arrangements and helps us to put our national plans into context with those of our international partners.”
Ambassador Leigh Turner, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the International Organizations in Vienna and incoming Chair of the Dialogue, said: “The exercise showed the importance of communication and cooperation between States during a nuclear or radiological emergency. The scenario helped us to evaluate national communication arrangements and to understand the needs of our partners.”
The table-top exercise is the latest in a series conducted by the Dialogue between Coastal and Shipping States, with the previous exercise held in 2015. The outcome of the exercise will be used to improve future communication among Coastal and Shipping States and secure safe procedures during the maritime transit of nuclear material.
Ambassador Mitsuru Kitano, Permanent Representative of Japan to the International Organizations in Vienna and former chair of the Dialogue, said: “The Dialogue has progressed in enhancing international cooperation and information sharing in order to build confidence in nuclear maritime transport.”
Twenty-four participants took part in a fictional scenario played out at the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC) in Vienna involving a fire breaking out on a ship transporting nuclear waste. Through the use of ‘injects’ which reflected how real time events might unfold, the participants were asked to assess given information, respond, and describe their respective decisions and actions to the group.
“Safety of maritime transport of nuclear materials, as well as the preparedness to respond to emergencies, are the responsibilities of States, and given the potential effects such an incident would have on several countries, close coordination and communication between the authorities of affected countries is crucial,” said Elena Buglova, Head of the IEC.
In the early 2000s Coastal and Shipping States, including those involved in last week’s table-top exercise, set up a Coastal State-Shipping State Dialogue as an informal consultation and information exchange mechanism relating to nuclear maritime transport. The table-top exercise was a model on which to test international cooperation through the Dialogue.
“Exercises like this help build confidence and promote transparency among countries that have to deal with shipments of nuclear material,” said Ambassador Pedro Moitinho de Almeida, Permanent Representative of Portugal to the International Organizations in Vienna and Chair of the Dialogue. “This allows us to practice emergency response arrangements and helps us to put our national plans into context with those of our international partners.”
Ambassador Leigh Turner, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the International Organizations in Vienna and incoming Chair of the Dialogue, said: “The exercise showed the importance of communication and cooperation between States during a nuclear or radiological emergency. The scenario helped us to evaluate national communication arrangements and to understand the needs of our partners.”
The table-top exercise is the latest in a series conducted by the Dialogue between Coastal and Shipping States, with the previous exercise held in 2015. The outcome of the exercise will be used to improve future communication among Coastal and Shipping States and secure safe procedures during the maritime transit of nuclear material.
Ambassador Mitsuru Kitano, Permanent Representative of Japan to the International Organizations in Vienna and former chair of the Dialogue, said: “The Dialogue has progressed in enhancing international cooperation and information sharing in order to build confidence in nuclear maritime transport.”
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