by The Oil Drum
[This post by Heading Out was published at The Oil Drum.]
From the viewpoint of those who suggest that there is no problem, the
discussion that swirls over the future of global oil supplies often
seems to focus on the large volumes of oil that still remain in place
around the world. The critical point, however, is not that this oil
exists, but rather the rate at which it can be recovered. This is
perhaps most obviously pertinent to the discussion of oil coming from
the Bakken formation in North Dakota, where the rapid decline in
individual well performance means that a great many wells must be
developed and remain on line in the out years to sustain any significant
flow past peak. As I noted last week, it is a point that clearly was
missed by Leonardo Maugeri, and equally by
George Monbiot, who has finally been swayed to the side of the cornucopians, after years of doubt.
But the issue of individual well flow rates are an increasingly
critical factor when future oil production in oilfields around the world
are considered, and this holds equally true when the fields in Saudi
Arabia are discussed.
The history of oil production from Saudi Arabia has largely come from
individual wells that produced in the thousands of barrels a day. In
order to sustain that production over decades, it has been necessary to
ensure that 1) the pressure differential between the well and the rock
are sustained; 2) that the rock has an adequate permeability to ensure
that flow continues at a steady state; 3) that the oil itself is of
relatively low viscocity and is thus able to easily flow through the
rock; and 4) that there is a sufficient thickness and extent in the
reservoir to allow such sustained production.