"I think North Korea will have developed an intercontinental ballistic missile within that timeframe (five years)," Gates told reporters during a visit to Beijing, where he discussed tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Gates, who met Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday, said he had conveyed to the Communist leaders in Beijing that their allies in Pyongyang would soon present a danger to the United States.
"With the North Koreans' continued development of nuclear weapons and their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States and we have to take that into account," he said.
North Korea has test-fired three ICBMs, most recently in April 2009 when one flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific.
Gates said the North could have a "limited" number of such missiles in five years, placing the US Pacific coast under potential threat.
The Pentagon chief said the United States appreciated the "helpful role" played by Beijing in recent months in containing the Korean crisis, after Pyongyang shelled a South Korean island in November, killing four people.
But he also said there had been a "sea change" in attitudes in South Korea, with the country's population outraged over Pyongyang's recent "provocations."
"Their tolerance for not responding has changed," he said.
Apart from the November 23 attack on Yeonpyeong island, the North stands accused by the South of torpedoing a warship last March with the loss of 46 lives. Pyongyang denies the charge.
The angry public reaction in South Korea had changed the "status quo" and it was vital that North Korea took actions to resolve the crisis, he said.
"Rhetoric is not enough at this point. There need to be some concrete actions by the North to demonstrate that they're truly serious about negotiation and engagement," he said.
Positive steps might include the North implementing a freeze on further missile or nuclear tests, he said.
US officials have sometimes expressed impatience with China's approach to North Korea, but Gates made a point of praising Beijing's diplomatic efforts during his visit.
However, his grave assessment of the situation on the divided peninsula and the North's weapons projects amount to renewed US pressure on China to rein in Pyongyang's leadership.
Gates said he expected the issue to come up in meetings later this week in Tokyo and Seoul, and when Hu visits Washington next week.
Pyongyang has expressed conditional willingness to return to six-nation nuclear disarmament talks that it abandoned in April 2009, a month before staging its second nuclear test.
But it fuelled regional fears in November by disclosing a uranium enrichment plant which could potentially give it a second route to a bomb.
The communist state this week officially proposed "unconditional" dialogue with Seoul, less than two months after the shelling assault.
The South rejected the offer, saying it was willing to hold government-level talks but only if the North admits responsibility for a series of provocations and confirms a commitment to scrapping its nuclear programme.
North Korea on Tuesday criticised South Korea's response, insisting it was sincere in trying to mend relations after months of tensions.
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