SMR Commercial Deployment forecast for late 2020's by utility
NUCLEAR
... Commercial nuclear plants in the United States are based on light water reactor (LWR)
technology developed in the 1950s. One unit, the 1,200-megawatt Columbia Generating Station operates in the Northwest. Motivated by improved plant designs, the need for new low-carbon baseload resources and financial incentives of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, nuclear development activity has resumed in the United States following a three-decade hiatus. As of late 2009, developers have submitted applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for combined construction and operating licenses for 27 new units at 17 sites, largely in the southeast. Most proposals are planned for service in the late teens, and construction of the initial units is expected to be contingent on federal incentives. The proposed plants employ evolutionary LWR designs with increased use of passively operated safety systems and factory assembled standardized modular components. These features should improve safety, reduce cost, and increase reliability.
Work is also underway on developing small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs are conceived as modular, scalable, largely factory-assembled plants of 25 to 350 megawatts generating capacity.
Compared to 1,100 to 1,800 megawatt conventional reactors, the smaller size and modular
construction of SMRs are intended to reduce capital cost and investment risk by employing a greater degree of factory assembly, shortening construction lead time and better matching plant size to customer needs through scaling of multiple units. Smaller plant size may also permit greater siting flexibility and cogeneration potential and can benefit system reliability through reduction in “single-shaft” outage risk. Proposed SMR designs offer improved safety through features such as integral construction (all reactor coolant systems contained within a single pressure vessel), below-ground emplacement, and lifetime, factory-installed fuel supplies. The SMR concept is not new or unique - over 50 SMR designs have been proposed - however, the enormous investment and long lead time needed to construct conventional reactor plants plus increasing interest in deploying carbon-free nuclear technology in developing countries has resulted in unprecedented interest in SMR technology. Completion of the first demonstration SMRs is at least a decade away. Designs must be completed, NRC design certification secured, and demonstration projects permitted, financed, constructed and tested.
Nuclear plants could be an attractive source of dependable capacity and baseload low-carbon energy that is largely immune to high natural gas prices and climate policy. However, a new nuclear unit would entail the risks of construction delay, regulatory uncertainty, escalating costs,
and the reliability risk associated with a large single-shaft machine. The reference plant is a
single 1,100 megawatt advanced-light water reactor unit. The reference cost of power from this unit is estimated to be $108 per megawatt-hour (2025 service). Construction of a new unit in the Northwest would likely require the successful completion and operation of at least one of the proposed new units elsewhere in the United States, established spent-nuclear fuel disposal policy, and aggressive development of equally cost-effective conservation and renewable resources. These conditions would likely preclude operation of a new conventional nuclear plant in the Northwest prior to the early to mid-2020s.
Late 2020's early 2030's maybe better forecasts for some systems.
Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Council Document 2010-09 Feb. 2010
Chapter 6: Generating Resources and Energy Storage Technologies Sixth Power Plan
Page 6-40
... Commercial nuclear plants in the United States are based on light water reactor (LWR)
technology developed in the 1950s. One unit, the 1,200-megawatt Columbia Generating Station operates in the Northwest. Motivated by improved plant designs, the need for new low-carbon baseload resources and financial incentives of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, nuclear development activity has resumed in the United States following a three-decade hiatus. As of late 2009, developers have submitted applications to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for combined construction and operating licenses for 27 new units at 17 sites, largely in the southeast. Most proposals are planned for service in the late teens, and construction of the initial units is expected to be contingent on federal incentives. The proposed plants employ evolutionary LWR designs with increased use of passively operated safety systems and factory assembled standardized modular components. These features should improve safety, reduce cost, and increase reliability.
Work is also underway on developing small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs are conceived as modular, scalable, largely factory-assembled plants of 25 to 350 megawatts generating capacity.
Compared to 1,100 to 1,800 megawatt conventional reactors, the smaller size and modular
construction of SMRs are intended to reduce capital cost and investment risk by employing a greater degree of factory assembly, shortening construction lead time and better matching plant size to customer needs through scaling of multiple units. Smaller plant size may also permit greater siting flexibility and cogeneration potential and can benefit system reliability through reduction in “single-shaft” outage risk. Proposed SMR designs offer improved safety through features such as integral construction (all reactor coolant systems contained within a single pressure vessel), below-ground emplacement, and lifetime, factory-installed fuel supplies. The SMR concept is not new or unique - over 50 SMR designs have been proposed - however, the enormous investment and long lead time needed to construct conventional reactor plants plus increasing interest in deploying carbon-free nuclear technology in developing countries has resulted in unprecedented interest in SMR technology. Completion of the first demonstration SMRs is at least a decade away. Designs must be completed, NRC design certification secured, and demonstration projects permitted, financed, constructed and tested.
Nuclear plants could be an attractive source of dependable capacity and baseload low-carbon energy that is largely immune to high natural gas prices and climate policy. However, a new nuclear unit would entail the risks of construction delay, regulatory uncertainty, escalating costs,
and the reliability risk associated with a large single-shaft machine. The reference plant is a
single 1,100 megawatt advanced-light water reactor unit. The reference cost of power from this unit is estimated to be $108 per megawatt-hour (2025 service). Construction of a new unit in the Northwest would likely require the successful completion and operation of at least one of the proposed new units elsewhere in the United States, established spent-nuclear fuel disposal policy, and aggressive development of equally cost-effective conservation and renewable resources. These conditions would likely preclude operation of a new conventional nuclear plant in the Northwest prior to the early to mid-2020s.
Late 2020's early 2030's maybe better forecasts for some systems.
Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Council Document 2010-09 Feb. 2010
Chapter 6: Generating Resources and Energy Storage Technologies Sixth Power Plan
Page 6-40
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