Note: This is a new weekly newsletter which will be sent to FAS members, analyzing a current security threat and FAS work on this issue. If you have any ideas for upcoming content, please contact Katie Colten, Membership Coordinator, at kcolten@fas.org.
Last week, Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project, and Dr. Robert S. Norris, senior fellow for Nuclear Policy, published the new installment of the Nuclear Notebook in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists regarding Russia's nuclear forces.
With the ratification of New START in January 2011, Russia promised to be more transparent to allow the international community to monitor its nuclear arsenal. Unfortunately, this has become difficult as the Kremlin does not release full aggregate treaty numbers of the country's nuclear forces. Despite these obstacles, Kristensen and Norris estimate that Russia has 4,400 nuclear warheads in its arsenal.
Additionally, Kristensen and Norris write that Russia is planning to retire more than two-thirds of its current arsenal of nuclear land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles by early 2020. This arsenal includes some of the most iconic examples of the Soviet threat against the United States: SS-18 Satan, SS-19 Stiletto, and the world’s first road-mobile ICBM, the SS-25.
During the same period, Russia plans to deploy significant numbers of new missiles, but the production will not be sufficient to offset the retirement of old missiles. As a result, the size of Russia’s ICBM force is likely to decline over the next decade – with or without a new nuclear arms control treaty.
For more information on Russia's nuclear weapons stockpile, check out these FAS resources and much more on our website.
Russia's Nuclear Arsenal:
Russia/ Soviet Nuclear Forces Guide
Strategic Command and Control
ICBM Bases
Russia’s Nuclear Shield
New START:
New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms
Senate Approval of New START Moves Nuclear Arms Control Forward
New START Data Exchange: Will it Increase of Decrease International Nuclear Transparency?
US Releases Full New START Data
Letter Urges Release of New START Data
U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Reductions: The Next Round
Congressional Research Service Reports:
Nuclear Arms Control: The U.S.-Russian Agenda
U.S. Nuclear Weapons: Changes in Policy and Force Structure
The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions
U.S.- Russian Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: Issues for Congress
Other Reports:
Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces (National Intelligence Council)
Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control (USAF Institute for National Security Studies)
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