 N.Korean attack related to succession: analystLondon (AFP) Nov 23, 2010 - North Korea's artillery attack on South Korea is likely linked to the eventual power transfer from leader Kim Jong-Il to his youngest son, a leading analyst said Tuesday. Mark Fitzpatrick, a fellow of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and formerly a senior official at the US State Department, said however that it was unlikely to lead to full-scale conflict. "It's hard not to draw the conclusion that this, like the Cheonan sinking, was related to the succession," Fitzpatrick told AFP, referring to a South Korean warship in March that Seoul said was hit by a North Korean torpedo. Both incidents were ways to give North Korean heir apparent Kim Jong-Un "some accomplishments," he said. "He has had little time to do anything at age 27, but given a general's title the North would like to gird him with some military victories and this is one that will surely be ascribed to his military leadership," he added. North Korea was, however, also trying to force South Korea back into talks on the disputed Yellow Sea border, said Fitzpatrick, the senior fellow for non-proliferation at IISS and ex-former US deputy assistant secretary of state. "One reason North Korea took this provocative step is to get the South's attention, to say: 'Look, unless you're willing to negotiate on this line of demarcation, you're going to draw military consequences,'" he said. World powers condemned Tuesday's attack on Yeonpyeong island near the Yellow Sea border, which killed two marines, but nuclear-armed North Korea accused South Korea of firing first. Fitzpatrick said the clash was a "serious escalation" in tensions, especially after North Korea's disclosure at the weekend of an apparently operational uranium enrichment plant. But he added: "I don't think it will turn into a full-scale war, South Korea will be very careful not to escalate its response." Seoul would, though, seek diplomatic responses -- even though they may have no lasting effect on changing Pyongyang's thinking. They would include "responding diplomatically through the United Nations, working with the United States to get China to tighten up implementation of previous Security Council measures," he said. |
The US leader, who visited Seoul this month, was expected to speak to South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak shortly.
US envoy on North Korea Stephen Bosworth, who was in Beijing, meanwhile said the United States and key regional player China agreed on the need for restraint, after he discussed the Yellow Sea incident with Chinese officials.
The Pentagon was closely monitoring the latest flashpoint with the nuclear-armed Stalinist state, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke by phone with South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-Young, officials said.
"At this point it's premature to say that we're considering any action," spokesman Colonel Dave Lapan told reporters.
He said no additional US forces had been deployed to the region as a result of the North Korean artillery barrage.
"We're still monitoring the situation and talking with our allies," Lapan said, adding that Washington was "mindful" of which actions might exacerbate or cool tensions on the peninsula.
Obama, woken by his national security advisor Tom Donilon at 3:55 am (0855 GMT) as the crisis broke, left as planned on a trip with Vice President Joe Biden to a Chrysler auto plant in the state of Indiana.
White House deputy spokesman Bill Burton told reporters on Air Force One that though Obama would speak with Lee, there were currently no plans for him to make an on-camera statement.
"The president is outraged by this action. We stand shoulder to shoulder with South Korea," Burton said.
In an early morning statement, White House press spokesman Robert Gibbs said Washington was in close and continuing contact with its ally South Korea after the attack on Yeonpyeong island, which killed two South Korean marines.
"The United States strongly condemns this attack and calls on North Korea to halt its belligerent action and to fully abide by the terms of the Armistice Agreement," Gibbs said.
"The United States strongly condemns this attack and calls on North Korea to halt its belligerent action and to fully abide by the terms of the Armistice Agreement."
Officials appeared to be taking care not to adopt any actions that could further inflame the situation, or reward Pyongyang's latest provocation, following a long showdown over its nuclear program.
Mindful of difficulties in dealing with North Korea's volatile leadership amid an apparent political succession, Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell told MSNBC the Pyongyang regime was "extremely unpredictable."
"They do things you could not possibly have predicted in a rational world," Morrell said.
Bosworth meanwhile said the shelling came up "in my conversation with the Chinese and we both share the view that such conflict is very undesirable and expressed firmly the desire that restraint be exercised."
China is seen as the only state which has any influence on Pyongyang, and Washington has in the past exerted behind-the-scenes pressure on Beijing to press North Korea to avoid inflammatory actions.
