U.S. Dismisses Iran Nuclear Overture from the Council on Foreign Relations

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Tehran invited (BBC)

 

foreign diplomats from China, Russia, and several European Union countries to tour some of their nuclear facilities, including installations at Natanz and Bushehr. However, the United States was excluded from the group of invitees. The U.S. State Department, which has been leading the charge for economic sanctions against the regime, dismissed the gesture (WSJ)

 

as a "ploy" designed to divide the international community. U.S. and European diplomats have expressed fear that Iran may try to use diplomacy to forestall more economic sanctions while it continues to push forward with uranium enrichment. A spokesman for Tehran reiterated the strictly "peaceful" nature of the nuclear program (Reuters)

 

and claimed the latest invitation was a signal of "goodwill" and a willingness to cooperate with the international community. In addition, Iran expressed its desire to host the official visit prior to the next round of talks in Istanbul this month, but European officials said the invitation was not likely to be honored (NYT)

 

, if at all, until after the negotiations are completed.

Analysis:

This Foreign Affairs article discusses the dangers of a nuclear Iran

 

and the limits of containment policy.

Abbas Milani of ForeignPolicy.com details the rich history behind Iran's current nuclear ambitions and why the United States' denuclearization

 

drive isn't working.

Background:

View an interactive timeline that explores the history of U.S.-Iran relations

The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr, and Evan Braden Montgomery

The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran

Eric S. Edelman, Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr, and Evan Braden Montgomery

Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb would upend the Middle East. It is unclear how a nuclear-armed Iran would weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of brinkmanship, meaning that it could be difficult to deter Tehran from attacking the United States' interests or partners in the region. Read

UAE Pushes on With Plan for First Nuclear Reactors

ENEC seeks permission to build UAE's first reactors
Emirates Nuclear Energy submitted a license application to United Arab Emirates regulators as part of its plan to build the country's first two nuclear power plants in Braka, Abu Dhabi. The state-owned company will be working with Korea Electric Power to model the facilities after reactors constructed in South Korea. ABC News/The Associated Press

WikiLeaks XXIV: Security for Radioactive Materials in Yemen Goes From Bad to Nonexistent from Foreign Policy In Focus

WikiLeaks XXIV: Security for Radioactive Materials in Yemen Goes From Bad to Nonexistent

from Foreign Policy In Focus

Yemen as careless about security for nuclear materials as Libya.

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Israel may have no military option against Iran

Israel may have no military option against Iran

Israeli leaders should understand that the attack option isn't really an option - a thousand new fire trucks and even the Iron Dome missile defense system will not provide protection.

By Gideon Levy

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/israel-may-have-no-military-option-against-iran-1.330130

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Debunking Myths of Iran's Fuel Deal - Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Debunking Myths of Iran's Fuel Deal - Bulletin of Atomic Scientists
Dealing with Iran’s nuclear program is one of the most important foreign policy issues of the day. Years of stalled talks, diplomatic dead-ends, and sanctions have made it difficult to see exactly where progress has been made with Iran and what efforts are worth pursuing. In “The Iranian quagmire: How to move forward” (November/December 2010 Bulletin), leading foreign policy experts weigh in from around the world on how to proceed with Iran -- from clear diplomacy to fuel swaps to the darkest scenario of military strikes. Whatever their proposed solutions, the writers express one common theme: We ignore Iran at our own peril. From the US, Thomas R. Pickering, Lawrence J. Korb, and Bennett Ramberg; from Turkey, Mustafa Kibaroglu; from Iran, Kayhan Barzegar; and from Israel, Emily B. Landau.

Below, more experts explore the options, their strengths and weaknesses, and propose various structures and points to consider as the West and Iran are set to re-enter talks in November. 
 

 http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/roundtables/iran-and-the-west-next-steps#rt8569

Iran, Syria in spotlight at UN atomic watchdog meet

Image via WikipediaIran's disputed nuclear drive will top the agenda of a meeting of the UN atomic watchdog this week, a prelude to the resumption of long-stalled talks between Tehran and world powers. The International Atomic Energy Agency convenes for its traditional year-end board meeting at its Vienna headquarters on Thursday and Friday, with the latest report on its long-running investigation into the Islamic republic's nuclear activities set to dominate debate.
Those discussions will effectively serve as a curtain-raiser to a much higher-level round of talks in Geneva three days later where Iran is to sit down with the so-called P5+1 grouping of Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany for the first time in over a year.
The IAEA has been investigating Iran's nuclear programme for eight years now to try and establish whether it is entirely peaceful as Tehran claims or whether it masks a covert drive to build a bomb as western powers believe.
In his latest report, circulated to IAEA member states last week, watchdog chief Yukiya Amano complained that Iran was defying UN Security Council resolutions and pressing ahead with uranium enrichment, even if the activities appeared to have run into some sort of technical problems recently.
Iran is under four sets of UN sanctions over its refusal to suspend enrichment of uranium, which can be used to make nuclear fuel or, in highly extended form, the fissile core of an atom bomb.
And the sense of unease in the Middle East was underlined by the WikiLeaks diplomatic cables in which the Saudi king was described as pushing Washington to take military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Earlier this week, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad admitted that some of the equipment in the enrichment process had been damaged by a computer malware amid speculation the activities were the target of a cyber-attack.
But he nevertheless insisted that Iran's "right to enrich uranium and produce (nuclear) fuel... is non-negotiable."
The exact agenda of the December 6-7 talks in Geneva is not clear: while the world powers want to focus on the enrichment issue, Tehran wants a wider discussion that includes regional security issues.
The last round of negotiations deadlocked in October 2009.
In addition to Iran, the IAEA's 35-member board of governors will also discuss the agency's latest report on alleged illicit nuclear activities in Syria.
Damascus is accused of building an undeclared reactor at a remote desert site called Dair Alzour until it was bombed by Israeli planes in September 2007.
The IAEA has been investigating the allegations since 2008 and has already said that the building bore some of the characteristics of a nuclear facility.
UN inspectors also detected "significant" traces of man-made uranium at that site, as yet unexplained by Damascus.
In addition, the watchdog has also requested access to three other locations allegedly functionally related to Dair Alzour, but so far to no avail.
Diplomats close to the IAEA say agency chief Amano is growing increasingly impatient with Syria's stonewalling and could soon start pushing for a so-called "special inspection" in Damascus, a rarely-used tool that allows UN inspectors to request more intrusive access to sites. If Syria were to block that request, it could face referral to the UN Security Council.
North Korea will also be on the IAEA agenda, even if UN inspectors have been barred from the reclusive stalinist state.
Earlier this month a US scientist revealed he had been shown a new uranium enrichment plant equipped with at least 1,000 centrifuges at the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex outside the capital Pyongyang.
The news heightened international concern that the communist regime -- which has conducted two nuclear weapons tests -- could produce highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium on top of the plutonium already in its possession.
Finally, the IAEA board is set to discuss a US-backed proposal for a nuclear fuel bank, which countries could turn to if their regular supplies were cut.
Diplomats said they expect the board to adopt the proposal.http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_Syria_in_spotlight_at_UN_atomic_watchdog_meet_999.html

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UAE Ambassador to IAEA pursues development of nuclear energy

By Dan Yurman
"In December 2009, the United Arab Emirates awarded a $20 billion contract to a consortium of South Korean firms to build four nuclear reactors on a remote desert location along the Persian Gulf. The consortium, led by state-owned Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), is committed to having the first reactor in revenue service by 2017. The change from fossil (natural gas) to uranium as a fuel source comes not a moment too soon as the UAE is now a net importer of gas for electricity generation and desalinization."  More at:
http://ansnuclearcafe.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/uae-ambassador-to-iaea-pursues-development-of-nuclear-energy/

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GE Expects India Sales to Grow 30% Annually

NEW DELHI—General Electric Co. expects to grow its business in India by 30% annually over the next several years as Asia's third-largest economy offers huge opportunities in transportation, nuclear reactors and many other sectors, the chief executive of its local unit said Monday.
"We are huge optimists on India overall," John L. Flannery told The Wall Street Journal in an interview. "The country has incredible depth and breadth and momentum behind it...The government has done a great job in developing markets, while private companies here are phenomenal." More at:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704584504575615963770507630.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Saudi economists call Fed move ‘golden opportunity’ to de-peg By SARAH ABDULLAH | ARAB NEWS

Saudi economists call Fed move ‘golden opportunity’ to de-peg

By SARAH ABDULLAH | ARAB NEWS

Published: Nov 12, 2010 23:51 Updated: Nov 12, 2010 23:51
JEDDAH: With the US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pump $600 billion into its economy as a stimulus to ward off increasing recessionary pressures, the question of whether Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states should keep their pegs to the US dollar has again taken center stage.
Voicing their opinions on the issue, several economists have come forward, calling the current turn of events, “a golden opportunity” to de-peg. They state that the US economy is experiencing an economic crisis and progressive weakening with economists fearing that future repercussions will include higher inflation rates in the Kingdom matching those of 2008.
“The time has come to lift the peg,” said Abdulrahman Al Saneh, professor of economics at the CBA in Jeddah, in an interview with Al-Eqtisadiah newspaper, a sister publication of Arab News. “This is a golden opportunity to de-peg before the dollar’s expected decline forecast over the next six months.”
He maintained that the recent move by the US Federal Reserve is a temporary fix that will not resolve the crisis. Nonetheless he did add that the present stimulus will have a temporary positive effect on the Saudi riyal and other currencies pegged to it by increasing the purchasing power of the dollar and give a slight boost to the currencies linked to it.
“The recent stimulus will also have a temporary effect in helping to stabilize inflation in the Kingdom currently at 6 percent, but does not mean that the opportunity to de-peg should be ignored.” Al-Saneh said.
On the other hand, Turki Fadak, a member of the Securities and Exchange Commission at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI), stressed appropriate action needs to be carried out in light of the Fed’s stimulus plan.
“Steps need to be taken to reduce any negative effects of the recent actions of the US Federal Reserve. This can be done by purchasing bonds and increasing the level of exports following a revaluation of the Saudi riyal from 3.75 to 3.00 against the US dollar,” Fadak said, adding that beyond these measures de-pegging needs to be considered to curb rising inflation.
He further stated that the Fed’s actions will have not only a domestic impact within the US but also global implications that can lead to dollar depreciation in the short to medium term. This will cause other currencies to have to work harder to raise the price of their currencies against the dollar followed by a rise in the prices of dollar-denominated commodities such as oil and minerals on the global market, in addition to raising prices of imports from Europe and Asia.
“Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports are not large compared to other countries. Because our exports are small and we have few things to ship outside and with all of our products pegged to the US dollar, this helps the US market but has a negative effect on Saudi markets as competition increases in response to a weak dollar,” he said, adding that he expects gold prices to reach $1,500 before year’s end.
Agreeing Salem Bajaja, professor of accounting at the University of Taif, has said that he expects the recession to continue globally and locally effecting emerging currencies and causing them to raise and lower exports due to eroding purchasing power.
Bajaja advised de-pegging the riyal from the US dollar, tying it to a basket of currencies as an indication that the US is skeptical in restoring economic strength while speeding up the process of ratifying the GCC unified currency.
John Sfakianakis, chief economist of Banque Saudi Al Fransi, said the likelihood of the Kingdom de-peging its currency to the dollar is simply not in the forecast.
“In my opinion, I don’t believe Saudi Arabia or any of the Gulf States will choose to revalue or de-peg from the dollar as brought to light in 2007-2008,” Sfakianakis told Arab News.
He stated that the forces currently in play are not the same as those experienced in 2008 with Gulf States preoccupied with credit recovery and growth of the non-oil private sector.
“The inflation forecasts are not expected to reach double-digits through 2011, so there is no reason to de-peg. Gulf state economies are now more in sync with the US than in 2008 with today’s loose monetary policy serving both interests and upholding the viability of the Gulf dollar peg,” he said.
© 2010 Arab News

http://arabnews.com/economy/article188494.ece

UAE Missile Deal Worth 140 Million Announced from Military Space News, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/UAE_Missile_Deal_Worth_140_Million_Announced_999.htmlWashington DC (SPX) Nov 11, 2010
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress November 3 of a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of the United Arab Emirates of 100 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and 60 Low Cost Reduced-Range Practice Rockets (LCRRPR), as well as associated equipment, training and logistical support for a total package worth approximately $140 million.

U.S. arms deal raises concerns in Mideast

The wholesale upgrading of the armed forces of Saudi Arabia and its partners in the Persian Gulf is seen in some quarters as a risky enterprise that will only convince the Iranians they need nuclear weapons to counter such a buildup of conventional forces ranged against them.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UPI) Nov 8, 2010 The U.S. administration's plan to sell advanced weaponry worth at least $122 billion to its allies in the Persian Gulf to counter Iran is causing unease in the Middle East. There are fears that the mega-deal, the biggest arms sale in U.S. history if Congress approves, carries serious risks it will inflame regional rivalries while it provides huge profits for the U.S. defense industry.
The potential for conflict in an inherently unstable region prone to war and insurgency is immense. Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and the Levant are all powder kegs. Israel feels increasingly squeezed by missile-armed forces that ring it and may resort to pre-emptive strikes.
The massive U.S. deal doesn't cover Iraq, where the Americans are still rebuilding the country's postwar military and security forces.
But that, too, causes concern. Saddam Hussein launched two wars against his neighbors. He invaded Iran in September 1980, triggering a grueling war of attrition that ended in August 1988. Two years later he invaded Kuwait, which ended in a crushing defeat for Iraq by a U.S.-led coalition.
Iraq's neighbors, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia, have no wish to see the new Iraq become a military power.
Right now, that prospect is less threatening than the reality of the present, with Iraq once again sliding into chaos and anarchy that could spill over into the Persian Gulf as the Saudis and other Sunni states seek to prevent the Iranians gaining a foothold in the heart of the Arab world.
The Americans have armed the gulf states for decades but this time they're providing them with offensive systems.

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Iran and the West: Next steps

Updated: 2 November 2010 Dealing with Iran’s nuclear program is one of the most important foreign policy issues of the day. Years of stalled talks, diplomatic dead-ends, and sanctions have made it difficult to see exactly where progress has been made with Iran and what efforts are worth pursuing. In “The Iranian quagmire: How to move forward” (November/December 2010 Bulletin), leading foreign policy experts weigh in from around the world on how to proceed with Iran -- from clear diplomacy to fuel swaps to the darkest scenario of military strikes. Whatever their proposed solutions, the writers express one common theme: We ignore Iran at our own peril. From the US, Thomas R. Pickering, Lawrence J. Korb, and Bennett Ramberg; from Turkey, Mustafa Kibaroglu; from Iran, Kayhan Barzegar; and from Israel, Emily B. Landau.

Iran Turns to OPEC to Defuse Iraqi 'Oil Threat' By: Andrea Bonzanni | World Politics Review

On Oct. 11, Iranian Oil Minister Massoud Mir Kazemi announced a reassessment of the country's oil reserves, increasing them by 9 percent to 150.31 billion barrels, from the previous official figure of 138 billion barrels. The announcement closely followed a similar move by Iraq, which had a week earlier raised its proven reserves by one-quarter -- to 143 billion barrels -- allowing Iraq to temporarily overtake Iran as the world's third-largest oil-reserve holder. The back-to-back announcements do not signal the discovery of new oil in the Middle East, however. As Iranian and Iraqi subsoil resources have been extensively surveyed over a period of decades, it is unlikely that the countries' nationalized oil industries have dedicated effort and scarce capital to exploration activity.

Instead, the revaluation of reserves should be interpreted as strategic maneuvering intended to influence the assignment of future production quotas within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The oil producers' cartel assigns quotas based on each member's proven reserves, and the current allocation will inevitably undergo a substantial revision due to Iraq's re-emergence as a major producer. Although Iraq and Iran have traditionally enjoyed similar quotas, Baghdad is now demanding special treatment to make up for three decades of underproduction it has suffered due to wars and sanctions. With this in mind, in 2009 Iraq signed contracts to rapidly increase its output from 2.4 million barrels per day (b/d) to 12 million b/d within 6-7 years. For its part, Iran -- which now produces 3.3 million b/d and relies on oil revenue for the lion's share of its budget -- has no intention of reducing its output to make room for new Iraqi production. More at:http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/6860/iran-turns-to-opec-to-defuse-iraqi-oil-threat

The Iran Primer: Power, Politics & U.S. Policy - U.S. Institute of Peace

“The Iran Primer” brings together 50 top experts—both Western and Iranian—to offer comprehensive but concise overviews of Iran’s politics, economy, military, foreign policy, and nuclear program. Each link on this site connects to a complete chapter on one of 62 subjects in 10 categories. Printable PDF attachments also are at the bottom of each chapter.The book chronicles U.S.-Iran relations under six U.S. presidents. It probes five policy options. And it offers a data base of chronologies, nuclear sites, sanctions resolutions and other information. Since Iran's 1979 revolution, the West has struggled to understand the Islamic Republic and how to deal with it. The challenge looms even larger in the face of Iran’s controversial nuclear program, disputed 2009 election, growing human rights violations, and angry rhetoric. “The Iran Primer” offers context and analysis for what lies ahead.
http://iranprimer.usip.org/

Fifty Years of OPEC - East Asia Forum

A little noticed anniversary celebrated in September was that of 50 years of the existence of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).  Despite the muted fanfare, its establishment led to fundamental changes in the global economic and political orders that remain critical today.
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/10/27/fifty-years-of-opec/

US stresses will to cooperate with Russia on missile shield

by Staff Writers Berlin (AFP) Oct 27, 2010 The United States wants to cooperate with Russia on setting up an European missile defence shield, a senior US official said Wednesday ahead of next month's NATO summit in Lisbon. "It's absolutely clear we want to do this cooperatively with Russia," assistant US Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs Philip Gordon told reporters Wednesday during a visit to Berlin.
"Russia faces the same potential threat as Europe," he said, adding that NATO's proposed policy did not aim to undermine Russia's own defence strategy.
Missile defence will be one of the key topics at the NATO summit which will be attended by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
NATO and the United States want to set up a missile shield to protect Europe against what they perceive is a growing threat of short and medium-range missiles launched from the Middle East, and more particularly from Iran.
The United States has "proposed resuming theatre missile defence exercises with Russia" as a way of boosting cooperation with Moscow on the subject, he said. More at:US stresses will to cooperate with Russia on missile shield

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South Korea: A rising Nuclear star

from Pimagazine Asia news feed

In January, a South Korean consortium beat the world's biggest nuclear plant builder, France's Areva, to win a US$20-billion ($26-billion) contract to supply four reactors to the United Arab Emirates. It was South Korea's first overseas order. In 20 years' time, South Korea aims to become the world's third-largest nuclear plant exporter. Currently, France, the US, Canada, Japan and Russia are the biggest exporters of atomic generators. What are the secrets to South Korea's nuclear success thus far? According to Mr Scott Peterson, a spokesman for the Nuclear Energy Institute, a key to South Korea's success is using standardised reactors. The country's use of "the same reactor design since 1985" has contributed to its "reducing the time for construction - from 64 months in 1995, to 47 months now, and South Korea is aiming for 39 months", said Mr Peter-son. It has also reduced construction cost by 30 per cent, he added. In its bold expansion plans, "the best chance for South Korea will come in new nuclear countries, for example Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Middle East countries", Mr Steve Kidd, director of strategy and research at the World Nuclear Association, said in an interview early this year. Venessa Lee

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ISRAEL'S NUCLEAR AMBIGUITY RECONSIDERED

The Israeli policy of "nuclear opacity" -- by which that country's presumptive nuclear weapons program is not formally acknowledged -- is examined in the new book "The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb" by Avner Cohen (Columbia University Press, October 2010).

For a variety of reasons, the author concludes that Israel's "nuclear opacity" is obsolete and will have to be replaced, sooner or later, with a forthright acknowledgment of what everyone already believes to be the case anyway.

Cohen, an Israeli scholar who was trained as a philosopher, provides a lucid account of how nuclear opacity has "worked," i.e. served Israeli interests, by providing the benefits of deterrence without the negative political and strategic consequences that could ensue from overt disclosure.  But its time has passed, he says.

"I argue that the old Israeli bargain with the bomb has outlived its usefulness, that it has become increasingly incompatible with contemporary democratic values at home and with the growth of international norms of transparency, and that it is time for Israel and others to consider a new bargain."  Among other things, he says, the continuing development of nuclear weapons-related technology in Iran is likely the force the issue to a new degree of clarity.

For the time being, however, there is no sign of any change in Israel's position on the matter.  "Israel has a clear and responsible nuclear policy, and it has frequently reiterated that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East," David Danieli of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission told Haaretz last month.  "Israel neither adds to nor subtracts from this statement."

Avner Cohen's "The Worst-Kept Secret" was reviewed recently in the New York Times and the Forward.

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• US 'persuaded' Israel that Iran won't have a nuclear weapon for at least another yer? (israelmatzav.blogspot.com)

Coercing Iran Stop it, says Paul Pillar

Ken Pollack’s article in these spaces about policy toward Iran is worth close attention, mostly because he explains clearly some of the reasons that the use of military force as a supposed solution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear program would be folly. Not only would such a resort to war elicit a wide assortment of reactions by Iran and others that would be highly harmful to U.S. interests; such an act would be at least as likely to speed up Iranian development of a nuclear weapon as to slow it down, given subsequent Iranian determination to redouble efforts in that direction. There are additional detrimental consequences that could be mentioned, but the ones Pollack adduces are enough to show that this course of action would be a disaster for the United States. 
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/coercing-iran-4279

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